USC Trojans Will Throat-Punch San Jose State In Week 0
The No. 6 USC Trojans host the San Jose State Spartans from the Mountain West Conference (MWC) at the United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Saturday in Week 0 Saturday.
San Jose State went 7-5 straight up (SU) and 4-8 against the spread (ATS) in 2022 to finish 2nd in the MWC West division. The Eastern Michigan Eagles beat the Spartans 41-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last year.
USC went 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS in coach Lincoln Riley's 1st year on the job. They lost to the Utah Utes 47-24 in the 2022 Pac-12 Championship then lost 46-45 to the Tulane Green Wave in the Cotton Bowl. This is USC’s final season in the Pac-12 before it moves to the Big Ten.
USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams talk strategy against the UCLA Bruins during the first half at the Rose Bowl. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
The last time these teams met was 2021, before Riley took over USC’s football program. Southern California steam-rolled San Jose State 30-7 in LA that year. The Trojans easily covered as 14-point favorites.
Riley will have the USC in the College Football Playoff in the next few seasons if not this year. The Trojans were 3rd in On3.com’s transfer portal rankings and 9th in the 2023 recruiting rankings.
Southern California's big transfer portal pickups include 2023 preseason 1st-Team All-Pac-12 WR Dorian Singer along with preseason 2nd-Team all-conference LB Mason Cobb.
Trojans QB Caleb Williams returns after a Heisman-winning campaign in 2022 and is a lock to go 1st in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams has three preseason 2nd-Team All-Pac-12 starting offensive linemen to protect him.
San Jose State at USC odds
USC-San Jose State betting odds for Week 0 as of Friday, August 25th from DraftKings.
With all that talent, ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks USC 14th nationally in returning production from last year’s team. The Spartans on the other hand are 111th in returning production this season, according to Connelly.
San Jose State senior QB Chevan Cordeiro returns for his sixth season in college football. But, the Spartans lost one All-American, three 1st-Team All-MWC players, and two 2nd-Team all-MWC players.
Among the Spartans gone are their leading receiver (WR Elijah Cooks), tackler (LB Kyle Harmon), and sack-getter (LB Junior Fehoko). Cooks caught 69 balls for 1,076 yards and 10 TDs in 2022, Harmon made 104 tackles and Fehoko had 9.0 sacks.
Spartans QB Chevan Cordeiro scrambles to throw vs. the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Alabama. (Michael Chang/Getty Images)
San Jose State doesn’t recruit well enough or hit the transfer portal hard enough to make up for that loss of production. The Spartans are outside On3.com’s top 70 rankings in the transfer portal and rank 127th in recruiting. They also haven’t pulled off an upset in the past two seasons.
SJSU is 0-8 SU and 3-5 ATS as underdogs since 2021. The Spartans are averaging just 14.6 points per game (PPG) in those games. In non-conference games, they are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS while averaging only 8.7 PPG.
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While at Oklahoma from 2017-21, Riley was 11-0 SU and 6-5 ATS as home favorites vs. non-conference teams in the regular season. The Sooners won those games by five TDs on average (50.7-15.7 points per game). They scored at least 48 points in eight of those contests.
In 2022, USC was 3-0 SU and ATS (+14.2 ATS margin) vs. non-conference teams in the regular season. The Trojans crushed Rice, Fresno State, and Notre Dame last year without big games from Williams.
USC QB Caleb Williams talks with coach Riley during the game vs. the Fresno State Bulldogs at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Williams only threw for five TDs and ran for five more in those three games. That would be great for most QBs. But, for Williams, it’s actually subpar. Remember, he had 52 total TDs in 14 games last season. He averaged roughly 11 TDs every three games in 2022.
If Williams didn’t get hurt in the 1st quarter, USC would’ve beat Utah in the Pac-12 title game and earned a CFP berth. My point is Southern California will run up the score if it can.
And Saturday the Trojans will. They will be on a warpath this year to make up for the disappointing end to last season. USC’s 1st victim will be San Jose State in Week 0.