US Open Pool Picks: Jon Rahm At The Top, Fade Rory McIlroy, Plus Pivot Selections To Gain An Edge On The Field

One of the most entertaining ways to get into golf betting is by playing in a US Open pool. For major tournaments, even the most casual fans are looking to get in on the action. This week, the players tee it up at Los Angeles Country Club, the first time the course has hosted a major golf tournament.

Because it's impossible to cover the rules for every specific US Open pool, I'll make picks for the most common version. Generally, pools breaks golfers into tiers and you pick one player from each tier. In the past, the tiers were almost exclusively based on World Golf Rankings.

However, thanks to LIV Golf and elevated PGA Tour events throwing a wrench into things, I've noticed many US Open pools are going to betting odds-based tiers.

So, for the purposes of these US Open pool selections, I will use DraftKings odds (as of Monday afternoon), breaking golfers into groups of 10 for the Top 50 (ish) and then give one "longshot" pick.

US Open Pool Picks

Tier 1: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth

Top Pick: Jon Rahm

The strategy worked for me at The Masters, so let's go with it again! Seriously, though, I expect Rahm to be less popular than Scheffler and Koepka and perhaps even Rory McIlroy. And this isn't a knock on Scheffler or Koepka, but all three have a legitimate shot to win.

And I prefer the lesser owned of the three who also happens to be the best putter. Short game matters a lot in majors and Scheffler's recent woes on the green cause just enough concern for me to prefer Rahm in the US Open at Los Angeles Country Club.

Jon Rahm rewarded players who backed him in their Masters pool, so let's go back to the well for the US Open. (Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

Pivot Pick: Viktor Hovland

It's hard to avoid the Big Three at the top, but if you want to really play contrarian, give Viktor Hovland a long look. He finally broke through at the Memorial two weeks ago and won an elevated PGA Tour event. It wasn't his first victory, but it was his first win in a stacked-field event.

And, he's quietly been one of the best major players over the past two seasons. He finished T-4, T-7, T-2 in his last three major starts. Yes, he missed the cut at last year's US Open. I don't care. His game is elite and he's in great form. He represents a perfect pivot for those trying to gain an edge on US Open pool competitors.

Player to Fade: Rory McIlroy

I'm sorry, I just don't see it with Rory. He's been extremely inconsistent and is struggling on Sundays in particular. I expect him to be relatively popular and I'd much rather roll with Rahm, Scheffler, Koepka, Hovland and even Patrick Cantlay over McIlroy in this spot. It's not that I don't think McIlroy can't or won't compete here, he's just not a good option in pools this week.

Tier 2: Tyrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Cam Young, Bryson DeChambeau

Top Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

This could be the make-or-break tier in this year's US Open. I expect ownership to be fragmented with pretty much every guy on this list getting some attention. For me, though, Matsuyama is the best option.

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays a shot during a practice round prior to the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

I could rattle off a bunch of stats, but I'll just let OutKick golf betting expert Geoff Clark do it for me: "Over his last 24 rounds, Matsuyama is eighth in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP). This includes some of the toughest events in the PGA Tour season such as the 2023 Memorial Tournament, PGA Championship, and THE PLAYERS Championship.

"Matsuyama is eighth on Tour this season in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG), sixth in Scrambling, and 22nd in Sand Saves. LACC has dangerous bunkers, fast greens and golfers will be fighting to save par at many holes."

He finished 4th at last year's US Open and has the game to win it this year.

Pivot Pick: Justin Rose

It's hard to find a pivot among this group because I do believe that ownership will be spread out. I like a few guys in this tier, honestly, but it's hard to figure out which way your poolmates might go. Pool players will likely overlook Rose in favor of some of the bigger names on this list, but he's constantly in contention lately. I know because I usually fade him. Now that I'm picking him, he'll probably suck so beware of that.

But he has three Top 20 finishes in his last four majors starts. And look at his results in big tournaments this season: T-6 at the PLAYERS, T-16 at The Masters, and T-9 at the PGA Championship. Plus, he finished T-12 at the Charles Schwab and solo 8th last week.

Player to Fade: Dustin Johnson

Johnson showed flashes with a strong first round at the PGA Championship, but eventually faded to a T-55 finish. He has some strong US Open finishes in the past, so I expect people will make him a popular selection. But The Open Championship is the only major he's truly contended at over the past three years. He has two Top 10 Open finishes in his two starts there. But he has zero Top 10s in his other eight major starts over that period.

Dustin Johnson hasn't contended in enough majors recently to back him in the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Tier 3: Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Wyndham Clark, Adam Scott

Top Pick: Rickie Fowler

I love me some Rickie Fowler. I had to figure out if I was picking him just because I'm a fan or if I truly think he's the best play here. But I really believe he is. This tier holds a few top-level players struggling with current form, but Fowler's form is excellent. He did miss the cut at the PGA Championship, which is not ideal. However, in his other previous seven tournaments he finished inside the Top 20 ... ALL SEVEN TIMES. He's coming off back-to-back Top 10s and is ready to get back into contention for major golf championships.

Pivot Pick: Wyndham Clark

I'm not sure how familiar casual golf fans are with Wyndham Clark, but they're about to be. He can absolutely MASH the ball off the tee and that's going to matter on some of the long, difficult holes at LACC. Plus, he's actually a very good ball-striker and a sneaky-good putter. His biggest weakness is that he can get a little wild with the driver, but driving accuracy won't hurt as much at this course as it can at other venues.

Player to Fade: Justin Thomas

It pains me to say it because I do like Justin Thomas and I generally root for him. But I think he's going to be very popular as a name people a lot of casual fans recognize in this group. But his game just isn't there right now. He finished outside the Top 50 at the PLAYERS, cut at The Masters, outside the Top 60 at the PGA Championship and cut at the Memorial two weeks back. There are too many good players in this range to recommend Thomas.

Tier 4: Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann, Sahith Theegala, Mito Pereira, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Denny McCarthy, Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee

Top Pick: Russell Henley

At The Masters, I gave Henley as a "pivot play" and he delivered a Top 5 finish. This week, he's my top pick in his group. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship which might make people forget about his incredible Masters tournament. Good. Let them sleep on him. But you're getting an elite ball-striker outside the Top 30 players. Ball-striking is going to matter a TON this week, since players are going to find themselves with a lot of difficult shots thanks to LACC's undulating fairways. Like Fowler, the PGA Championship cut is his only non-Top 20 finish in his previous six events.

Russell Henley contended at the Masters, rewarding pool backers, and I expect him to do it again in the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Pivot Pick: Denny McCarthy

It's possible golf fans became quite a bit more familiar with McCarthy thanks to his playoff loss at the Memorial. But I'm betting he's still not going to be nearly as popular as some of the other guys. McCarthy's claim to fame is that he is the PGA Tour's best putter. And that's true. But his all-around game is far better than people realize. He's Top 25 on tour in Strokes Gained: Total, which is great for a guy in the fourth tier of a US Open pool.

Player to Fade: Gary Woodland

Call it a gut feeling. I think Woodland is going to be very popular thanks to his 2019 US Open victory, Top 10 finish in last year's US Open and Top 15 finish at this year's Masters. But I don't think he's going to be a factor this week. He's a horrible putter and a horrible scrambler, two areas players have to be great to win a major tournament. Let other people bank on him turning those around this week.

Tier 5: Harris English, Phil Mickelson, Ryan Fox, Cam Davis, Matt Kuchar, Kurt Kitayama, Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo, Sergio Garcia, Seamus Power, Chris Kirk, Taylor Moore, Keith Mitchell, Adrian Meronk, Nick Taylor

Top Pick: Emiliano Grillo

This tier is a bit bigger because there are a bunch of guys with exactly 200-1 odds at the backend, so I put them all here. For me, Grillo is the best bet here. Stop me if I've said this before, but I'm targeting ball-strikers. Grillo got his first PGA Tour victory a few weeks ago, but he's had time for that excitement to wear off. No matter who you pick here, you're taking a relatively longshot. Grillo is a bad putter but he can get hot with the flat-stick. We're hoping this is one of those weeks.

Pivot Pick: Eric Cole

Cole is going to be massively overshadowed by the big names like Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, and recent winners Grillo and Taylor. But he's got a ton of game, especially for a guy with 180-1 win odds. He missed the cut at the Charles Schwab but otherwise has four Top 25s in his last five tournaments. That includes a T-15 at the PGA Championship and a T-6 last week at the Canadian Open. It's hard to find guys this far down, but I like Cole a lot.

Eric Cole has been quietly very good this season, including a Top 15 at the PGA Championship which he can definitely replicate this week in the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Player to Fade: Nick Taylor

Coming off a historic victory, Taylor is going to catch the eye of golf fans. But I don't know how he can turn around after winning his country's national open last week to showing up at the US Open this week. With all the attention he's getting suddenly, I wouldn't blame him if his focus weren't quite there this week. And you can't lost focus for even one shot at a major tournament, because big numbers lurk around every dogleg.

"Longshots" Tier: Everyone Else

Top Pick: Adam Hadwin

Although I'm fading the Canadian who won last week, I'm backing the one security tackled while celebrating his countryman's victory. Hadwin is 31st in Strokes Gained on the PGA Tour this season and for some reason sportsbooks placed his odds to win outside the Top 50. That just doesn't jive. He's Top 50 in Strokes Gained driving, approach, scrambling AND putting. He has the all-around game to at least compete to finish in the Top 20, which is all you really need from a longshot pick.

Pivot Pick: Anyone Else

Every player in this tier is worse than 200-1 and there are tons players to choose from. Just pick your guy in your US Open pool and go with it. But, you know, temper your expectations.