Upset Alert: Iowa State Could Fall In This One

Ole Miss vs. Iowa State, 7:45 ET

There has been a lot of talk about the lack of upsets and the tournament not having that great of games so far. I'm writing this Saturday morning, so it is possible that today's games change all that, but the reality, to me, is that the Conference Tournaments are better games. These are just fun. This year feels like the best teams are truly at the top, and the middle is just a bit jumbled up. The bottom teams those 12 and lower, are just not that great. That's part of the reason for the lack of drama right now. All I really care about though is that there is no drama with my bankroll and I'll try to make that happen here with Ole Miss taking on Iowa State.

Ole Miss, an SEC team, is entering this game with a 23-11 record. They've been one of the better teams in the nation this year, but never really reached a truly elite designation. If they lose here, it should probably be considered a good season. If they win here, it also really shouldn't be considered a huge shock. The team went just 10-8 in SEC play this year with losses against Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Florida. All of those teams, with the exception of Vanderbilt, were ranked teams. Mississippi State didn't fare well in the tournament despite making a late push to try and scare Baylor. To the credit of Ole Miss, they do have some decent wins on their resume as well. They beat Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama (this one most impressive as it was on the road). They also were able to escape Arkansas in the SEC tournament and gave Auburn a good game. They may not be playing great basketball but they aren't an abomination either. Their first game was against North Carolina who might've been still a bit too high on their victory from the First Four game. 

HOUSTON, TEXAS - FEBRUARY 22: Milan Momcilovic #22 of the Iowa State Cyclones works against Joseph Tugler #11 of the Houston Cougars during the first half at Fertitta Center on February 22, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Iowa State has been considered one of the top teams in the nation this season. They are 25-9 coming into this one and made quick work of their opening round matchup against Lipscomb. Over the course of the season you saw the Cyclones as a mainstay in the top-10 rankings in the nation. However, their Big 12 run was a bit unimpressive in my opinion. I get that Houston is the cream of the crop, and there are more teams and better teams in the conference now, but they went just 13-7 in conference play this year. They lost at West Virginia, at Arizona, at home to Kansas State, at Kansas, at Houston, at Oklahoma State, and at home to BYU. They had a chance to avenge the lost to BYU in the Big 12 tournament and couldn't get a stop, allowing 96 points in that one, the most points they allowed all season. 

These teams are probably closer in talent than people thing, but there is a clear edge to the roster of Iowa State over that of Ole Miss. I'm not saying they should demolish the Rebels, but they should win the game. I think the total is a bit low, but I wouldn't confidently play this one either way. For me, I'm going to take the points with Ole Miss. While I don't love their current form, I am not convinced that Iowa State plays all that well against true competition. I don't need Ole Miss' best game, I just need them to be competitive enough. Grab the points. 

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