Under Should Come Through As Cubs Take On Guardians

Cubs vs. Guardians, 6:40 ET

It is a bit hard to believe, but it has already been eight years since the Cubs beat the Guardians to win the World Series and snap their drought. Although tonight doesn't have quite the luster of a Game 7 in the World Series, we have an interesting situation between the two clubs. The Cubs have a chance to leave town above .500 and the Guardians have a chance to drive a steak through their hearts and push them further back in their playoff race. Let's take a look at how we should play this series opener between the Cubs and Guardians. 

The Cubs enter tonight's game with a chance at being .500 for the first time since June 6th. At that point in the season, the team was 31-32, now they are 59-60. After starting the second half a bit slowly, they've found a way to get things rolling this month and are 7-2 in the nine August games. Overall, they are 8-2 in their past 10 games, and 12-9 since the All-Star Break. Is this just a miniature hot streak or did the Cubs finally figure things out? They essentially were sleeping through the past three months, but are still in a position to get a Wild Card spot. They only had about a 6% chance sometime last week, but they are only three games back of the final Wild Card spot. There are still three teams ahead of them, including the Cardinals who are in the NL Central as well. They have a great chance to win tonight with their best pitcher on the mound, Shota Imanaga. Coming into this season, Imanaga felt like an afterthought or consolation prize of the Asian starting pitching market. However, he has been amazing this year with a 9-2 record, 3.06 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP. Both his ERA and WHIP are top 15 numbers in the league. He has a 2.75 road ERA. On the season, he has allowed 42 earned runs in 123 innings. 17 of those earned runs have come in 7.1 innings against the Brewers and Mets. He only has two poor starts out of 21, and has allowed four or more earned runs just three times this entire season. 

Jul 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after scoring during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Guardians are one of the best teams in baseball, and tend to play their best baseball at home. Coming into tonight, the Guardians are 20 games over .500 and are 15 games above on their home field. The biggest question for me is if Cleveland can keep this up in the playoffs. Jose Ramirez, the most dangerous hitter in the lineup, will still be effective, but will the rest of the team be able to consistently hit this well against the elite pitchers of the other playoff teams. For now, they've established themselves as a solid offensive club and one that has a strong pitching staff. For context though, the Guardians aren't that much better in most statistical categories than the Cubs are - with the exception of the one that matters most - wins. Tonight, they look to add another one to the tally with Ben Lively on the hill. Lively has been very good this season, coming in with a 10-7 record, 3.59 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. Hits really haven't been the issue as he has allowed 95 in 110.1 innings, but walks are a concern as he has given up 34 of those this year. Lively has two quality starts in is last three outings, but just three over his past seven starts. He hasn't faced the Cubs this year, but he hasn't had much luck against them in the past with their hitters going 9-for-21 against him.

This game is a bit of a coin flip because it is hard to bet against the Guardians at home. The Cubs are playing some of their best baseball of the season, and they have their best pitcher on the mound, so I certainly don't blame you if you want to take the Cubs on the moneyline or even the run line. I likely will sprinkle on them as well. Instead, I'm going to back the under eight runs for the game. With these pitchers on the mound, I'd be surprised to see more than five runs through six innings combined. Back the under. 

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