Under In Broncos-Bills On MNF In Week 10 Is Too Good To Pass Up

NFL Week 10 wraps up with the Buffalo Bills (5-4) hosting the Denver Broncos (3-5) for Monday Night Football. The Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs 24-9 two weeks ago before taking its Week 9 bye. Buffalo lost at the Cincinnati Bengals 24-18 on Monday Night Football last week.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen avoids a tackle by Bengals DT DJ Reader at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Jeff Dean/Getty Images)

My first instinct is to fade the Bills since they haven't been the same since losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London in Week 5. Especially, on defense. Since Week 5, Buffalo's defense has the worst expected points added per play and 30th in success rate.

However, Denver's offense doesn't inspire confidence either. Over their last four games, the Broncos are averaging only 18.0 points per game. Get this, Denver has more rushing yards (552) than passing yards (532) over that span.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills in Week 10

Betting odds for the Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 10 as of 11:15 a.m. ET Monday, Nov. 13th.

Granted, three of Denver's last four games were vs. top-10 defenses (the New York Jets in Week 5 and the Chiefs in Weeks 6 and 8). But, the Broncos want to take the air out of the ball. They are 23rd in pass rate over expectation (per Nfeloapp.com) and average the fewest plays per game in the NFL.

Also, teams that rank 29-31 in plays per game (Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, and Las Vegas Raiders) have a combined 6-22 Over/Under (O/U) this year. Despite their defense falling off recently, the Bills are 1-4 O/U in their last five games.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson scrambles against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Furthermore, Buffalo's defense can't get off the field on 3rd down but tightens up in the red zone. The Bills are 23rd in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and 3rd in defensive red-zone scoring rate. This suggests the Broncos are likely to settle with kicks at the end of their long drives.

Lastly, scoring is down league-wide and Unders have been crashing like crazy in primetime. This season, Monday Night Football has a 1-10 O/U record with a -7.6 average O/U margin. Primetime games, in general, are 7-24 O/U.

My prediction: Bills 24, Broncos 20

Bet slip for the Broncos-Bills from PointsBet in NFL Week 10.