UNC Will Use Frontcourt Edge To Cover Against Alabama

Alabama vs. North Carolina, 9:40 ET, Thursday

I have to imagine at this point there are a lot of brackets still intact. There aren't a ton of high seeds that have been upsets or deep runs from the lower seeds. North Carolina State has made it to the Sweet 16, as an 11 seed, but the rest of the teams are all six or lower. All of the #1 seeds are still alive, all of the #2 seeds, and two of the #3 seeds. I mentioned before the tournament started that I thought the favorites were likely to win a lot of these games in the tournament. For today, we are going to focus on the later games in the Thursday schedule as Alabama takes on North Carolina. 

This might actually be the best game of the weekend. The talent that Alabama has doesn't put them as an underdog against many teams in the country, but this is one that they will be an underdog against. As a four-seed in the tournament, they've had a fairly easy path to this game as they won the first game by 13 points and put up 109 points against Charleston. In the second game, they played against Grand Canyon, a game they won 72-61 - which was closer than I expected it to be. As you'd probably expect, Mark Sears led the way for Alabama with 56 points in the two games. Sears is a dynamic guard who can score from all three levels and is one of the best scorers in the tournament. He should balance out the backcourt of North Carolina fairly well in this game. Aaron Estrada is another solid scorer, but he isn't as talented as Sears. He does a lot of things well, and contributes a lot, if Sears is Jordan, Estrada is more the style of Pippen. The biggest issue I have with this game for Alabama is their frontcourt. Simply put, who will stop Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram? The Crimson Tide are a good team and they can put up points with the best of them, but this is a tough matchup. 

SPOKANE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 24: Mark Sears #1 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts to a play during the second half against the Grand Canyon Antelopes in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena on March 24, 2024 in Spokane, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

In one of my brackets, I have North Carolina winning the championship. I don't sports bet based on my bracket, but I'd be a bit surprised if they lose this game. Sears is a very talented guard and I think he will be the one person on Alabama that could get hot and pull off the upset or give the Tar Heels difficulty. Of course, North Carolina has a guard of their own that can take over games and score a lot of points in a hurry. RJ Davis has been the leading scorer for the Tar Heels in both games of the tournament. If he neutralizes Sears, this game should be over. I mentioned it before, but Bacot and Ingram should be able to dominate the boards and put a ton of points. Combined, those two big men average 26.6 points per game and pull in 19 rebounds per game. Ingram is more of a stretch forward as well and will require one of the shorter guards from Alabama to try and keep up with him. Cormac Ryan, the other guard from North Carolina, is not as complete of a player as Estrada, but he is a capable scorer, and you can't leave him any space.

Scoring should happen pretty frequently in this one as both teams have strong offenses. The total is the highest of any of the Sweet 16 games, and it makes sense. In fact, it is almost 20 points higher than the next closest total. I do expect this to go over the total, but it could be sweaty. As we get closer to the championship, and the matchups get tougher, the teams will probably slow the pace down a bit. I'm going to sprinkle the over, but my official play is on the Tar Heels -4. They are the better team and should use their advantages to win this game by seven or more in this one. 

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