A Few Bets For UFC 315: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

The UFC goes north of the border Saturday for UFC 315 at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada. Things got tense during the event's media day earlier this week when American Charles Radtke said "When y’all boo the [U.S.] national anthem, someone's going to have to pay for that" to hype his fight with Canadian Mike Malott. 

However, that's the main event of UFC 315's prelims, and I'm only gambling on three main-card fights, starting at 10 p.m. ET. It features a title bout for the UFC Welterweight belt between the champion, Belal Muhammad, and the challenger, Jack Della Maddalena, who ranks fifth in the division. 

Regardless, I have a three-TV setup in my living room, and I'll already be gambling on the 2025 NBA Playoffs and watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I need something to throw on my other screen, and figure, "Why not make some Pizza Bets on UFC 315"? 

UFC 315 Main Card Best Bets 

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday, May 10.

UFC Welterweight Title Fight: (C) Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Maddalena has never fought "championship rounds," and the Over 4.5 rounds is -166, which means there is a 62% chance of this fight going the distance. So, Maddalena will most likely be tested Saturday in a way he hasn't. He is 12-1 in fights ending with a knockout, most recently knocking out Gilbert Burns with knees and elbows at UFC 299 in March 2024. 

Muhammad, on the other hand, has gone to the judges' scorecards 20 times in 28 career fights. Belal is 18-2 in bouts decided by the judges, including a unanimous victory over Leon Edwards for the welterweight strap at UFC 304 last July. He was knocked out once in his first UFC pay-per-view at UFC 205 in 2016. 

Hence, Muhammad has the experience and endurance to beat Maddalena in this championship fight. I bet Belal +205 to upset Edwards at UFC 304, and I like how he fights. It's easier for Muhammad to fight at this weight with his college wrestling background and his regular weight is 169 pounds. While Maddalena walks around at 186 pounds and welterweight is a 170-pound division. 

Best Bet: Belal Muhammad -185 moneyline, up to -200 

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Women's Flyweight Title Bout: (C) Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot

I'm not a die-hard UFC fan, so I don't feel bad about using sports betting clichés to justify one of these bets. That said, this feels like a trap line. Shevchenko is the UFC women's pound-for-pound top-ranked fighter and Fiorot is fifth on that list. Yet, Fiorot is a -130 favorite, which is fishy, right? 

How could the "pound-for-pound" best fighter be an underdog to anyone? What's even sketchier about Shevchenko's odds is that BetMGM's John Ewing reported via X Saturday morning that nearly 80% of the action is on the champion, but Fiorot has gone from a -120 favorite to -135. 

For whatever reason, the mixed martial arts betting market is higher on Fiorot than Shevchenko. The challenger has a slightly better significant-strike margin than the champion. Finally, Fiorot has won five consecutive fights by decision, including a five-round bout vs. the sixth-ranked pound-for-pound female fighter, Erin Blanchfield, her last time out. 

Best Bet: Manon Fiorot -130 moneyline

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Bantamweight Fight: Jośe Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi 

Aldo hasn't knocked anyone out since a UFC Fight Night in February 2019 and his last six matches have gone the distance. Zahabi has a five-fight win streak with knockouts in two of them. He opened at +200 odds at BetMGM and is down to +155 as of Saturday morning. 

Ultimately, I agree with that line move because Aldo has lost two of his last three fights and his -192 odds are too high. That implies he wins this fight 66% of the time. But, Zahabi is Canadian and will have the crowd behind him, which could influence the judges. Or maybe Zahabi just beats Aldo's ass. Either way, I'll take the hometown 'dog. 

Best Bet: Aiemann Zahabi +155 moneyline

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. You can track my UFC best bets here.