Fight Night! Best Bets For UFC 313: Alex Pereira Vs. Magomed Ankalaev
This is my return to the betting octagon after I got my sh*t rocked at UFC 310 in December. My loss at UFC 310 snapped my six-event winning betting streak. But, one of my favorite fighters, UFC Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, defends his title at UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, so I'm back.
I'm betting on four main-card bouts and skipping the women's strawweight bout. That's not because of any sexism, because sometimes, these chick fights are more exciting than the dudes. Frankly, I just didn't feel like diving into the Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo match.
Let's discuss what I did gamble on though.
UFC 313 Main Card Best Bets
The odds are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 1:45 p.m. ET Saturday, March 7.
Light Heavyweight Title Fight: (C) Alex Pereira (-118) vs. Magomed Ankalaev
I guess I'm ending UFC 313 with a "sucker bet" because I don't see Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 No Contest) upsetting the champ and Pereira's price is too good to pass up, which is suspiciously shrinking. Nevertheless, Pereira (12-2) is one of the most feared strikers on the planet on a five-fight winning streak, including four straight victories by KO/TKO in title bouts.
This is the second time Ankalaev is headlining a UFC PPV after he fought Jan Błachowicz to a draw for the light heavyweight strap at UFC 282 in December 2022. Pereira beat Błachowicz in a heavyweight match at UFC 291 in July 2023 before winning the light heavyweight title.
Finally, both are strikers, but 10 of Pereira's wins are by KO/TKO, while Ankalaev only has 10 knockouts in 22 fights. Nine of Ankalaev's victories are by decision, and I'm literally betting he cannot out-strike Pereira, who's 2-0 in fights that went to the judges.
Best Bet: Alex Pereira (-118) at FanDuel
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Lightweight Bout: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev (-155)
This is a rematch from UFC 286 in March 2023 when Gaethje (25-5) beat Fiziev by a majority decision. Gaethje out-landed Fiziev 103-97 in significant strikes and had the only takedown of their match, which won the "Fight of the Night" award at UFC 286. Fiziev (12-3) is replacing an injured Dan Hooker on just two weeks' notice.
Gaethje was knocked out in the center of the octagon by Max Holloway in the last second of a five-round fight for the "BMF" belt at UFC 300 in April 2024. The Ataman returns to the octagon for the first time since losing to Mateusz Gamrot because of a knee injury at UFC Fight Night in September 2023.
Justin Gaethje fights Rafael Fiziev in a rematch at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at UFC 313 Saturday. (Photo credit: Per Haljestam-Imagn Images)
Before consecutive losses to Gamrot and Gaethje, Fiziev had a six-fight winning streak, highlighted by knocking out Renato Moicano, #10 in the lightweight division, in the first round of UFC 256. I like the idea of backing a well-rested Fiziev on short notice vs. Gaethje, who spent most of his training camp preparing for Hooker, #6 in the UFC's lightweight group.
Lastly, nearly 80% of the wagers are on Gaethje, per BetMGM's John Ewing, but the line is moving toward Fiziev, who's gone from a -125 on the opener to -155. Between Gaethje fighting in more PPVs and being a former lightweight champ, and the public usually betting underdogs in prize fights, the line movement toward Fiziev is probably "sharp".
Best Bet: Rafael Fiziev (-155) at BetMGM
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Lightweight Fight: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-126)
Turner (14-8) has lost three of his last four fights, including his most recent to Moicano at UFC 300. Whereas Bahamondes (16-5) has back-to-back first-round knockouts headed into this bout, and his latest match was this past September.
On top of his recent form, I'm betting on Bahamondes for two reasons. First, he is the busier fighter, landing 7.2 significant strikes per minute compared to Turner's 5.6 per minute rate. They absorb roughly the same number of significant strikes and both win mostly by KO/TKO.
Second, Bahamondes has gone from a slight ‘dog (+105) on the opener at BetMGM to a slight favorite (-135) on the morning of UFC 313. Nonetheless, per BetMGM’s John Ewing, more bets and money are on Turner, the more popular fighter, because he's appeared on more UFC PPVs. Well, I'm fading the public here.
Best Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes (-126) at FanDuel
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Lightweight Fight: King Green (+380) vs. Maurício Ruffy
The argument for Ruffy (11-1) is that he is 10 years younger with longer arm and leg reach, and 10 of his wins are by knockout. But, Green (32-16-1, 1 No Contest) has a +2.7 margin in significant strikes landed vs. absorbed across 20+ UFC bouts. In contrast, Ruffy landed fewer significant strikes in his unanimous decision win vs. James Llontop at UFC 309.
Since Ruffy is a -470 favorite, the betting market sees Green as a "stepping stone" opponent for him. Yet, this is Green's ninth UFC PPV while it's Ruffy's second. That said, give me Green's experience and striking ability at this price (+380). Which is lower than the opener because early sharp money bet Green, hopefully for the same reason as me. I want to be "sharp" too.
Best Bet: King Green (+380) at FanDuel
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