UFC 310 Best Bets: Alexandre Pantoja Vs. Kai Asakura Flyweight Title Bout

Flyweight champion Alex Pantoja defends his belt against Kai Asakura, making his Octagon debut, at UFC 310 Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Also, Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Ian Machado Gary in a five-round UFC welterweight title eliminator fight. The pay-per-view, available through ESPN+, starts at 10 p.m. ET after the prelims at 6 p.m. ET. 

As a disclaimer, I'm not a full-time mixed martial arts fan. Instead, I parachute into these UFC pay-per-views out of my love for sports betting and fight nights. Nonetheless, I'm on a six-event UFC betting win streak, so I'm doing something right. That said, keep reading for my favorite looks at this UFC pay-per-view. 

UFC 310 Main Card Best Bets 

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of 3 p.m. ET Saturday, December 7.

UFC Flyweight Title Fight: (C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

Pantoja (28-5) is going for his third consecutive Flyweight title defense. He won the title from Brandon Moreno in a split decision at UFC 290 in July 2023. Then Pantoja beat Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December and Steve Erceg at UFC 301 in May, both by unanimous decision. 

Asakura (21-4) makes his UFC debut Saturday and tries to become the first Japanese champion in UFC history. This will be Asakura's first career five-round fight. He is the bigger fighter and better striker, but Pantoja is the better grappler and submission specialist. 

Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight championship against Kai Asakura at UFC 310 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Pantoja has the fifth-highest control time in Flyweight history. He is 10-0 in fights decided by submission and 10-5 in fights that go the distance. Pantoja's average fight time in the Octagon is 13:01. With that in mind, he will try to wear Asakura down and not get knocked out early. 

BET 0.7 units (u) on OVER 2.5 rounds (-140)

• For the Over 2.5 rounds to cash, Pantoja-Asakura needs to go past the 2:30 mark in the third of this five-round championship fight.

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Welterweight Bout: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry

In his last fight, Rakhmonov (18-0) made Stephen Thompson tap out for the first time at UFC 296 in December 2023. While Garry (15-0) beat Michael Page by unanimous decision at UFC 303 in June. Two of these guys' last three fights were against common opponents such as Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. 

Rakhmonov choked out Magny in June 2022 and choked out Neal at UFC 285 in March 2023. Garry got a unanimous decision victory over Magny at UFC 292 in August 2023 and beat Neal by split decision at UFC 298 in February. Since Rakhmonov beat Magny and Neal more convincingly, he is too expensive vs. Garry. 

Furthermore, Garry has a "puncher's chance". He has been training in grappling with UFC legend Charles Oliveira to prepare for Rakhmonov. Garry has the fifth-highest striking differential (+2.3) in welterweight history (minimum of five UFC bouts). Finally, the Irishman has been the busier fighter with two appearances in the Octagon since Rakhmonov's last. 

BET 0.5u on Ian Machado Garry (+285) 

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Heavyweight Fight: Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov

Gane (12-2) has alternated between winning and losing over his last five fights. His last two losses were in UFC Heavyweight title fights vs. Francis Ngannou by unanimous decision at UFC 270 in January 2022 and Jon Jones by guillotine choke at UFC 285 in March 2023. Most recently, Gane TKO'd Serghei Spivac at a UFC Fight Night last September. 

Volkov (38-10) is on a four-fight win streak, beating Sergei Pavlovich by unanimous decision in his last bout in June. Gane beat Volkov by unanimous decision in a five-round headliner for a UFC Fight Night in June 2021. Their rematch will probably be decided by the judges too, since they are both strikers. 

Because Volkov has a higher takedown accuracy and defense, he could try to grapple with Gane. Especially since Gane got choked out by Jones after last fighting Volkov. Plus, Volkov couldn't out-strike Gane in their first fight. He landed 20 more significant strikes than Volkov in their first fight (135-115). 

Gane has never been knocked out despite fighting two of the greatest strikers in the history of the heavyweight division, and Volkov is 24-2 in fights decided by knockouts. Finally, before coming to the UFC, Gane was 13-0 as a professional Muay Thai fighter.

BET 0.75u on "Ciryl Gane to win by decision" (-150) 

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Featherweight Bout: Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie

Mitchell (16-2) has lost two of his last three fights to current featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC 282 in December 2022 via arm-triangle choke and, most recently, by a first-round knockout to Josh Emmett at UFC 296 last December. This is Mitchell's fifth fight at a UFC pay-per-view. 

Gracie (5-2) is fighting in the Octagon for a third time. He lost by unanimous decision to Cub Swanson at a UFC Fight Night in 2019 before going off the grid during the COVID pandemic. He lost by unanimous decision again to Charles Jourdain in his return to the Octagon at UFC 288 in May 2023. 

Both of these guys prefer to take this fight to the mat. Mitchell is 7-0 in fights that go to the distance and 9-1 in matches decided by submission. He only lands 2.3 significant strikes per minute. Billy Quarantillo leads the UFC's featherweight division with 7.5 significant strikes per minute. Hence, Mitchell won't take Gracie out of his comfort zone. 

Gracie has five career submissions and no tap outs. The Brazilian is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and a world champion grappler. He lost his last two fights by decision because his opponents landed many more significant strikes, which isn't a concern vs. Mitchell. So, Gracie is a live dog to make Mitchell tap, and he can keep this fight close. 

BET 0.5u on "Kron Gracie +3.5" point spread (+175) & 0.25u on "Kron Gracie To Win By Submission" (+1400) 

• The point spread market is exclusive to DraftKings. If Gracie wins before this fight goes the distance or wins one of the three rounds 10-9 while losing the other two, 10-9, his +3.5 cashes.

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Featherweight Fight: Nate Landwehr vs. Dooho Choi

This is Choi's (15-4-1) third UFC fight after a three-year layoff. Choi fought Kyle Nelson to a draw at a UFC Fight Night in February 2023 and got a TKO victory vs. Bill Algeo at a UFC on ESPN event in July. Fourteen of Choi's 20 career MMA fights have been decided by KO/TKO, and he is 12-2 in those bouts. 

Landwehr (18-5) is fifth in significant strikes landed per minute in the featherweight division (minimum of five UFC bouts). Eleven of his fights have ended in KO/TKO, and he is 9-2 in those fights. In March, Landwehr knocked out Jamall Emmers in his last match at a UFC on ESPN event. 

Nate Landwehr fights Jamall Emmers during UFC Fight Night at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. (Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports)

Meanwhile, Choi's takedown accuracy is 37% and Landwehr's takedown defense is 86%. For context, Diego Brandao's 68% takedown accuracy leads the featherweight division and Landwehr is fifth among featherweights in takedown defense. Hence, this fight will most likely be decided by strikes. 

Neither of these fighters ranks in the top 15 of the featherweight division and Landwehr-Choi is the first fight on UFC 310's main card. In fact, former UFC Bantamweight champion, and #9 featherweight, Aljamain Sterling fights in the prelims. Consequently, Landwehr and Choi will try to get a knockout to earn another fight on a UFC pay-per-view. 

BET 0.5u on "Nate Landwehr To Win By KO/TKO/DQ" (+300) 

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