Best Bets For UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Since football is on the horizon, this will be the last UFC event to headline the Saturday sports slate for the rest of 2024. UFC 305 at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia features a middleweight championship bout between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. Prelims start at 8 p.m. ET with the main card beginning at 10 p.m. 

Admittedly, I don't follow the UFC closely. Instead, I parachute into these pay-per-views the week of looking for something to gamble on. Regardless, I've made money betting on three straight UFC events, such as UFC 302, 303 and 304, and adding 3.74 units (u) to my bank account. Let's make a fourth consecutive winning fight night. 

UFC 305 Main Card Betting Card 

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Friday, August 16. 

UFC Middleweight Title Fight: (C) Dricus ‘Stilknocks’ Du Plessis vs. Israel ‘The Last Stylebender’ Adesanya

This is an African grudge match after Du Plessis called himself the real African champion. Adesayna is Nigerian but lives and fights out of Auckland, New Zealand. Whereas Du Plessis was born, raised, lives, trains, and represents South Africa.  

Du Plessis is 7-0 in the UFC and won the middleweight strap in a split decision victory over Sean Strickland at UFC 297 in January. Strickland dominated Adensanya to win that title in a unanimous decision victory at UFC 293 after Israel knocked out his rival, Alex Pereira, for the belt at UFC 287. 

Dricus Du Plessis punches Sean Strickland during UFC 297 at ScotiaBank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

That said, I'll follow the line movement and BET DU PLESSIS (-105) on the moneyline. Per BetMGM's John Ewing, nearly three-fourths of the money is on Adensaya. Yet,  Israel opened as a -135 favorite and is down to -115 across the market. 

This makes sense because Adensaya is one of the more popular UFC fighters. The Last Stylebender has appeared on comedian Andrew Schulz's "Flagrant with Akaash Singh" podcast and has headlined more UFC pay-per-views. 

Furthermore, Du Plessis is 11th in the UFC's "Pound-for-Pound" rankings while Israel is 13th. Finally, Stilknocks has a higher significant-strike differential (+1.72 vs. +0.82) and more ways to win. Du Plessis has 10 victories by submission and Adensaya has never made anyone tap. 

BET 1.05 units (u) on Dricus Du Plessis to retain the UFC Middleweight Title (-105)

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Flyweight Fight: Kai 'Don't Blink' Kara-France vs. Steve ‘Astroboy’ Erceg 

Astroboy lost a UFC Flyweight title match to Brazilian Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision in Rio de Janeiro at UFC 301 in May. Kara-France has lost two straight fights but has been out since June 2023 with an injury and is just 7-4 in his UFC career. 

However, Kara-France's losses were to the second- (Amir Albazi) and third-ranked (Brandon Moreno) in the flyweight division. The "Over 2.5 rounds" is juiced heavily (-280), so the sportsbooks expect this to go the distance. With that in mind, Don't Blink can out-point Erceg because he has a higher significant-strike margin. 

Kara-France has tapped out three times in his MMA career and Erceg has six wins by submission. Lastly, Astroboy has a 26% takedown accuracy and Kara-France has an 88% takedown defense. Meaning, Erceg could waste his time trying to get a takedown for a submission attempt while Kara-France will rack up points with his striking. 

BET 0.5u on Kai Kara-France to get an upset (+140) 

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Lightweight Fight: Mateusz ‘Gamer’ Gamrot vs. Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker

Gamrot has won three straight fights, most recently beating Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision at UFC 299 in March. Additionally, Gamrot is the busier fighter. He has two wins since Hooker's previous fight, a split decision victory over Jalin Turner at UFC 290 in July 2023. 

This is another fight I'm following the line movement for. Per Ewing, more than 70% of the bets are on Hooker but Gamrot has gone from a -225 favorite on the opener to -375 at BetMGM as of Friday morning. That line movement is suspicious considering the betting splits. Boxing and MMA betting are different from team sports. 

Mateusz Gamrot grounds and pounds Rafael Dos Anjos during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center in Miami. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)

The public loves to bet underdogs in combat sports. In team sports, the public bets favorites. Sportsbook directors say they were always rooting for the undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. because the public would bet his opponent at a huge plus-money. But, due to the odds, I'm parlaying Gamrot with Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang earlier in UFC 305. 

Parlay Mateusz Gamrot and Carlos Prates' moneylines (-156) to win a 0.5u 

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Heavyweight Fight: Tai ‘Bam Bam’ Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho ‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik

Tuivasa has lost four consecutive fights entering UFC 305, all inside the distance: Two by submission and two by knockout. Rozenstruik has alternated between winning and losing his past four bouts, the latest being a TKO victory over Shamil Gaziev in March. 

Nonetheless, Bam Bam (10th) is two spots ahead of Bigi Boy (12th) in the UFC's heavyweight rankings. Three of Tuivasa's four recent losses have come vs. the second- (Ciryl Gane), third- (Alexander Volkov), and fourth-best (Sergei Pavlovich) fighters in the division.

Ultimately, neither one of these fighters is impressive and both are big boys with heavy hands. I'll take Tuivasa fighting in his native Australia since both fighters will be swinging for the fences and, if it goes to a decision, Tuivasa might get "home cooking" from the judges. 

BET 0.5u on Tai Tuivasa (+195) 

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Welterweight Fight: Li ‘The Leech’ Jingliang vs. Carlos ‘The Nightmare’ Prates 

This is the second leg of my Gamrot-Prates parlay, obviously. I'm using a similar logic in Jingliang-Prates as I did for my Gamrot pick as well. Prates has been steamed up from a -200 opening favorite to -375 at BetMGM. But, more money is on Prates whereas more bets are on Jingliang. 

Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public since professionals wager more money than your average Joe. The public is betting Jingliang because he has more fights in the UFC and a fat payout. However, both are strikers and Prates has a longer arm and leg reach and is younger. 

Parlay Carlos Prates and Mateusz Gamrot's moneylines (-156) to win a 0.5u 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and ra