UFC 304: Leon Edwards Vs. Belal Muhammad 2 Best Bets, Picks, Odds

Two title fights headline UFC 304 at the Co-op Live in Manchester, England Saturday, July 27. So, we can safely assume Dana White won't be escorting former President Donald Trump and Kid Rock cageside. Interestingly, the English will accommodate us Americans with UFC 304's main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET and 3 a.m. BST ("British Summer Time") Sunday. 

First, Englishman Tom Aspinall defends the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship vs. Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event. Then another Brit, Leon Edwards, by way of Jamaica, puts his UFC Middleweight Championship on the line in a rematch with Belal Muhammad. Between those two bouts and the remaining three on the main card, let's make some money on fight night! 

UFC 304 Main Card Best Bets

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Saturday, July 27. 

Welterweight Title Fight: (C) Leon Edwards (-250) vs. Belal Muhammad (+205)

Edwards (22-3, 14-2 UFC) closed as a -280 favorite in his first fight vs. Muhammad (27-3, 14-3 UFC) at a UFC Fight Night in March 2021. That bout ended in a "no contest" with Muhammad unable to continue after getting poked in the eye. Edwards is 4-0, including back-to-back title fights vs. former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, while Muhammad is 5-0. 

Muhammad is a Chicago native and wrestled for the Illinois Fighting Illini. Wrestling is the best combat sport to start MMA training. Between maintaining weight and the general nature of combat sports, the discipline of wrestlers is insane. Granted, if this goes to the judges, Edwards could get some "home cooking" as an Englishman. 

That said, Muhammad has a higher significant strike differential and takedown accuracy and defense. He is 17-2 in fights with decisions, whereas Edwards is 12-2. Six of Muhammad's last seven wins are by unanimous decision. Four wins were against top-15 fighters in the welterweight division, including three in the top-10. 

Finally, this is a fade the market spot for Muhammad. Bettors will hammer Edwards since he has the hometown advantage, but there isn't much separating the two. If Muhammad were +150 or lower, this would be a different conversation. But, I'll my chances with Muhammad at this price. 

BET 1 unit (u) on Belal Muhammad (+205)

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Interim Heavyweight Title Fight: (IC) Tom Aspinall (-395) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+310) 

Blaydes (18-4, 13-4 UFC) scored a first-round TKO vs. Aspinall (14-3, 7-1 UFC) in 2022 after just 15 seconds due to a freak leg injury sustained on Aspinall's leg kick. Aspinall's fights have the shortest average time in UFC history at 2:10 and five straight matches that ended inside the first round. Only nine of Blaydes' 23 career fights have gone past the halfway mark of Round 2. 

Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall of England trade strikes in a heavyweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at O2 Arena in London, England. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

Furthermore, three of Blaydes' four career losses have been by KO/TKO and people think he has a "glass jaw". However, Blaydes chalks that up to the power heavyweights possess. With that in mind, I expect Blaydes to be extra cautious since 11 of Aspinall's 14 career wins are by KO/TKO. 

He has a wrestling background, so Blaydes may try to ground and pound Aspinall instead of duking it out. Either way, I don't think Blaydes wants to get into a striking match. I'll fade the most obvious result, an early-round knockout, and take +145 odds on the Over. 

BET 0.5u on OVER 1.5 rounds (+145)

• The Over cashes if this fight goes past 2:30 in Round 2.

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Lightweight Bout: King Green (-115) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-105)

This feels like a trap line. Dana White has been trying to turn Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC) into a star since his UFC debut in 2021. Barstool Sports signed Pimblett to a sponsorship deal after his first UFC fight in October 2021. Paddy, The Baddy, is 5-0 in the UFC and Green is 3-3 (32-15-1 overall, 13-10-1 UFC) in his last seven UFC fights with one no-contest. 

Yet, Pimblett opened with +150 odds at BetMGM. The line has moved closer to a coin flip because more than 70% of the bets are on him at BetMGM as of 11 a.m. ET Friday, per John Ewing. Plus, Pimblett is an Englishman and the sportsbooks knew he would get bet. It seems like oddsmakers are baiting bettors, and I'm not falling for it. 

BET 1.15u on King Green (-115) 

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Middleweight Fight: Christian Leroy Duncan (-135) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+114)

Originally, Duncan (10-1, 3-1 UFC) was supposed to fight Robert Bryczek, but Rodrigues (15-5, 6-2 UFC) replaced Bryczek for unknown reasons. Generally, I like to back the guy who fills in for someone.  I bet Nate Diaz as a 4-to-1 underdog when he filled in for an injured Rafael dos Anjos and upset Conor McGregor at UFC 196. 

In fact, Rodrigues' most recent loss was against Brunno Ferreira at UFC 283 after Brad Tavares withdrew with an injury. My working theory is the replacement fighter is loose and carefree and the other fighter doesn't have his A-game because he trained for his original opponent. 

Gregory Rodrigues celebrates after defeating Denis Tiuliulin during UFC 292 at TD Garden in Boston. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, they both fought and lost to Armen Petrosyan. Duncan lost a unanimous decision to Petrosyan at a UFC Fight Night in June 2023. Rodrigues lost by split decision in February 2022. But, that decision was controversial because 10 of 14 media judges scored the fight in favor of Rodrigues, per MMADecisions.com. 

Lastly, the line is moving toward Rodrigues even though Duncan is a Brit and will have more supporters. Duncan opened as a -145 favorite at BetMGM, according to John Ewing, which has dropped despite slightly more cash being on the Englishman

BET 1u on Gregory Rodrigues (+114)

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Featherweight Fight: Arnold Allen (-238) vs. Giga Chikadze (+195)

Allen (19-3, 10-2 UFC) enters after back-to-back losses to Max Holloway at a UFC on ESPN event in April 2023 and Movsar Evloev at UFC 297 in January, both by unanimous decisions. Chikadze (15-3, 8-1 UFC) was on the wrong side of a unanimous decision vs. Calvin Kattar in January 2022 and beat Alex Caceres by unanimous decision in August 2023. 

A majority of both fighters' UFC bouts have gone to the judge's scorecards: Eight for Allen and six for Chikadze. DraftKings offers "Point Spread" lines for UFC matches and Chikadze is +3.5 (-140). Chikadze has a higher significant strike margin edge with a longer arm and leg reach. Meaning, Chikadze will win at least one round and Allen won't knock him out. I'm nervous Allen will get some "home cooking" but Chikadze has superior striking ability. 

BET Chikadze +3.5 (-140) 

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