UFC 303 Betting Preview: Alex Pereira Vs. Jiří Procházka 2
There are only two reasons I'll handicap a UFC event. Either it's one of the biggest pay-per-view cards of the year or there is nothing else to bet. Unfortunately, it's the latter for UFC 303 at the T-Mobile in Las Vegas Saturday. UFC 303's five-fight main card starts at 10 p.m. ET and the prelims are at 5 p.m. ET.
Alex Pereira defends his UFC Light Heavyweight belt in a rematch against Jiří Procházka. Even though Pereira-Procházka is the only title fight, the biggest favorite on the UFC 303 main card is -155 currently, so all five bouts are actionable. For the record, I'm an MMA-betting novice. Hence, if you tail my bets, don't wager life-changing money.
UFC 303 Main Card Betting Card
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, June 28.
Light Heavyweight Championship Fight: Alex Pereira (-142) vs. Jiří Procházka (+120)
Pereira beat Procházka by TKO in the second round via elbows after stunning him with a left hook in an interim Light Heavyweight title match at UFC 295 in November 2023. Pereira was +5 in total strikes and +8 in significant strikes vs. Procházka at UFC 295.
Despite being the No. 1 challenger in this division, Procházka is outside the top 15 in the UFC's pound-for-pound rankings. Whereas the Brazilian is ranked fourth pound-for-pound in the sport. He successfully defended his belt vs. the fighter who vacated it, Jamahal Hill, at UFC 300 in April.
This is a bad matchup for Procházka, who specializes in Muay Thai, since Pereira is the former World No. 1 in kickboxing. He kept the Czech at a distance with leg kicks in their first fight. Finally, only three of Procházka's 30 career wins are by submission. Pereira is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with better takedown defense and accuracy.
BET 1.42 units (u) on Alex Pereira's -142 moneyline.
- Pereira will most likely win by KO/TKO, which is +110 odds. Yet, I'd rather bet Pereira's moneyline rather than chase the value for that "Method of Victory" prop.
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Featherweight Fight: Brian Ortega (+120) vs. Diego Lopes (-142)
The Brazilian Diego Lopes lost his first fight against Movsar Evloev by a unanimous decision at UFC 288 last year. He has three consecutive first-round victories since, two by KO/TKO and the other by submission. In April, Lopes TKO'd Sodiq Yusuff via punches at UFC 300.
Ortega avenged his first-round TKO loss via shoulder injury to Yair Rodriguez in 2022 with an arm-triangle choke submission of Rodriguez on a UFC Fight Night in February. After winning his first 14 MMA fights, seven in the UFC, Ortega is 2-3 in his last fight bouts.
Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega trading punches in UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
But, not only did T-City beat Rodriguez in their rematch, his other two losses over that span were featherweight title fights vs. Max Holloway at UFC 231 and Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266. Volkanovski and Holloway are the first- and second-ranked challengers in the featherweight division. I.e. those aren't "bad losses".
Also, we are seeing recency bias with these betting odds. The market is overreacting to Lopes's winning streak vs. a few soft opponents and knocking Ortega too hard because of his losses to UFC legends. Lastly, if this fight goes the distance, Ortega has the edge. He is 5-1 in fights decided by the judges and Lopes is 2-4.
BET 1u on Brian Ortega's +120 moneyline.
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Light Heavyweight Fight: Anthony Smith (+120) vs. Roman Dolidze (-142)
First of all, this line is suspicious. Dolidze, aka The Caucasian (the lamest nickname ever), has lost back-to-back fights to Nassourdine Imavov and Marvin Vettori, both by decision. Yet, Dolidze is a favorite over Smith, aka Lionheart (a much cooler nickname), who just upset Vitor Petrino as a +400 underdog via a first-round guillotine choke in May.
Plus, the Georgian (the country, not the state) is stepping up in weight for this fight on short notice. Carlos Ulberg was Smith's original opponent, but withdrew June 21 for undisclosed reasons, according to MMAJunkie.com. Dolidze is 10th in the UFC's middleweight rankings and Smith is 10th in the light heavyweight division.
Nonetheless, bettors are "taking the cheese". Roughly two-thirds of the action is on Smith as of 11 a.m. ET Friday, per BetMGM's John Ewing. Fading the public is a good betting strategy regardless of the sport. Ultimately, Dolidze has a better significant-strike and takedown-accuracy-vs.-defense differentials.
BET 1.42u on Roman Dolidze's -142 moneyline
- I'd wait on betting this until closer to the fight in hopes of getting cheaper odds for Dolidze.
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Welterweight Fight: Ian Machado Gary (-155) vs. Michael Page (+130)
We have a bout featuring two United Kingdom natives in a millennium-old rivalry between Ireland and England. The Irishman, Gary, is 14-0, including 7-0 in the UFC, beating Geoff Neal by a split decision in his previous fight in February. Page, the Englishman, won his UFC debut by unanimous decision over Kevin Holland in March.
When researching this fight, I discovered Page has a unique style with a kickboxing background. MMAJunkie.com reported UFC commentator Joe Rogan said: "His [Page] style of hitting and not getting hit and being able to close distance really fast, f*cking nobody is like that". Rogan doesn't think Gary will find the distance vs. Page.
Ian Machado Gary and Michael Page face-off at the UFC 303 press conference in Las Vegas ahead of their welterweight bout. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Moreover, the Over 2.5 rounds is -220, so there's a good chance this fight goes to the judges' scorecards. With that in mind, Page's striking skills are appealing here. He has a much higher significant strike accuracy (76.5-58.1%), according to ESPN, and a slightly better striking defense (55-54%), per UFC.
BET 1u on Michael Page's +130 moneyline.
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