UFC 302 Bets: Islam Makhachev Vs Dustin Poirier, Sean Strickland Vs Paulo Costa
It's Fight Night on Saturday, June 1 and UFC 302 goes down at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main card is available for pay-per-view on ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Pound-for-pound, the best fighter in the UFC, Islam Makhachev, puts his Lightweight title on the line against former BMF champion Dustin Poirier in the main event at UFC 302.
Before we get into the picks, let me caution you: I'm NOT an avid UFC fan. I'm only betting this event because I'll be in front of the TVs watching my New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and New York Yankees playing at the San Francisco Giants Saturday. With that in mind, feel free to fade me or only put a Pizza Bet on the picks you like below.
UFC 302 Main Card Best Bets
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, June 1.
Lightweight Championship Fight: Islam Makhachev (-625) vs. Dustin Poirier (+455)
Makhachev is the best fighter in the sport. Poirier has alternated between winning and losing over his last four fights, with the latest being a KO victory vs. Benoit Saint-Denis at UFC 299. The Diamond (Poirier) lost in a UFC Lightweight title fight against Charles Oliveira at UFC 269. Because Poirier is a fan favorite, the public is hammering The Diamond.
John Ewing from BetMGM reports that four of the five most bet props for UFC 302 include a Poirier method of victory. As of Friday morning, roughly 90% of the bets are on Dustin at BetMGM. But, combat sports are different from team sports. The public usually bets favorites on the latter and the 'dogs in boxing and MMA. The sharp play in UFC is betting the heavy favorite.
Makhachev beat Oliveira for the lightweight belt at UFC 280 by submission via arm-triangle choke. Oliveira made Poirier top with a rear-naked choke. Six of Makhachev's 14 UFC wins are by submission. Poirier tapped out in two of his previous three losses. Islam trains with former UFC lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov, who choked out Poirier in a UFC lightweight title match at UFC 242.
That said, Makhachev's odds are even too long to bet outright. Instead, I'm betting a DraftKings "Quick SGP" with Makhachev winning by submission in UNDER 4.5 rounds (-110). For this bet to cash, the reigning champ needs to make Poirier tap before the 2:30-minute mark of the fifth round.
BET 1.1 units (u) on Makhachev winning by submission in UNDER 4.5 rounds (-110) at DraftKings.
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Middleweight: Sean Strickland (-245) vs. Paulo Costa (+200)
I'm willing to lay it with Strickland (-245) in this scrap. Strickland lost the UFC Middleweight strap to Dricus du Plessis in January in his first title defense after upsetting the great Israel Adesanya at UFC 293. His loss to du Plessis by "split decision". But, 10 of 23 media organizations had Strickland winning on the scorecards, per MMAdecisions.com.
READ: Sean Strickland Calls Tom Brady A 'F***ing P***y' Over Roast Reaction
Costa has lost three of his last four bouts, including a TKO loss to Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight title in September 2020. With that in mind, Strickland is the busier fighter. Since Costa's loss to Adesanya, Strickland has fought 11 times and has an 8-3 record. ESPN's "Fight Center" classifies both as "strikers" and Strickland is the more efficient striker.
Israel Adesanya mixing it up with Sean Strickland during UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. (Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports)
Neither has a win via submission in the UFC. The Southern Californian native has a significant strike differential of +1.58 per minute and the Brazilian is -0.18 in significant strikes landed per minute. Strickland has a four-inch reach advantage with his arms and a two-inch reach advantage with his legs.
BET 1.23u on Sean Strickland's -250 moneyline (ML) at DraftKings to profit a 0.5u.
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Middleweight: Kevin Holland (-278) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+225)
I'll say the quiet part out loud: I always root for Americans in prize fights unless I bet the foreigner. Unfortunately, that's the case for UFC 302's main event title match. However, I don't know much about these fighters, so I'm following the line movement. According to Ewing, Holland opened as a 2-to-1 favorite but got as high as 3-to-1 Friday morning at BetMGM.
Also, Holland is a f***ing hero. Per his Wikipedia page, Holland stopped a carjacking in his neighborhood in October 2021. He stopped a shooting at a Houston restaurant in March 2022 by putting the gunman in a rear-naked choke. Then, two months later, Holland pulled a driver from a flipped-over tractor-trailer on the side of the freeway. What does this have to do with UFC 302?
Absolutely nothing. I find it interesting. As for my fight-based analysis, both are strikers, but Holland has a four-inch arm-reach advantage and a higher significant-strike-per-minute differential. I wouldn't hate a Sean Strickland + Kevin Holland ML parlay at -114 odds. However, since I'm not fond of parlays, I'll go with Holland straight up.
BET 1.39u on Kevin Holland's -278 ML at DraftKings to win 0.5u.
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Welterweight: Niko Price (+210) vs. Alex Morono (-258)
Price and Morono have "Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu" fighting styles. Seven of Morono's last 10 matches have been decided by the judges. Price lost back-to-back fights by KO/TKO. Yet, The Hybrid (Price) fought past the halfway mark of the third round in five of his last bouts. Plus, Morono has six KO/TKO wins to three losses by that method in his 34 career fights.
BET 1u on OVER 2.5 rounds (+130) at DraftKings to profit 1.3u.
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Welterweight: Randy Brown (-180) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+150)
This is another fight where I'm using "chick logic". I went to college at St. John's University in Jamaica, Queens, and Brown went to Jamaica High School. Plus, both fighters are "strikers". But, Brown has a five-inch arm reach advantage and a 4.5-inch reach edge with his legs. Brown's previous fight was a first-round KO of Muslim Salikhov, who beat Santos by decision at UFC 251 in July 2020.
BET 0.5u on Randy Brown to win by KO/TKO/DQ at DraftKings (+275) to profit 1.38u.
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