It's Fight Night, And Here Are Our UFC 300 Best Bets For Pereira-Hill, Gaethje-Holloway & More
It's "Fight Night" with the UFC 300 pay-per-view main card starting at 10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. On one hand, this card is a little weak and I usually only bet the UFC when Jon Jones fights. On the other hand, there are no NBA games Saturday, April 13th, the college basketball tournaments are over, and I'm not ready to bet on regular-season MLB.
Before we get into my UFC 300 betting card, let me be clear: I'm a casual (at best) UFC fan. I'm not gambling as much money on these UFC fights as I do in NFL or NBA games. The bets below are Pizza Bets for entertainment purposes. That said, I did a lot of homework for Fight Night and I standby my analysis.
UFC 300 Best Bets
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of noon ET Saturday, April 13th.
Middleweight: Bo Nickal (-1450) vs. Cody Brundage (+850)
UFC Hall of Famer, and former Middleweight champion, Michael Bisping said Bo Nickal (5-0, 2-0 UFC) could be the "American Khabib Nurmagomedov". Nickal has beaten all five of his opponents within the 1st three minutes of Round 1. Three of Nickal’s wins are by submission and the other two are TKOs.
He is a 3-time D-1 national champion wrestler and one of the UFC’s hottest prospects. Nickal lands 2.2 more significant strikes per minute than his opponent while Brundage has a -0.7 significant-striker-per-minute differential. Unfortunately, there aren’t any good betting options for Nickal to win this fight. My favorite bet for this fight is for "Bo Nickal to win and Under 1.5 rounds" at -330 odds.
Over/Under 2:30 minutes equals the half-round. So, you have to risk $30 to profit $10 on a bet for Nickal to beat Brundage before the 2:30 minute mark in Round 2. Instead of betting this straight up, I’m looking to parlay this with another expensive line. I have a hunch that Dana White is trying to make a star out of Nickal and setting him up with easy fights.
Parlay Leg #1: Bo Nickal to beat Cody Brundage in UNDER 1.5 rounds.
- This plus parlay leg #2 "Arman Tsarukyan to beat Charles Oliveira" has a -114 payout at DraftKings. I'm betting to win 1 unit (u) on this parlay. Let's say 1u is $100. I'd risk $114 for a $100 profit.
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Lightweight: Charles Oliveira (+180) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-218)
Oliveira (34-9, 22-9 UFC) is the No. 1 contender in the Lightweight division and UFC ranks him the 7th-best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. Furthermore, Oliveira has 31 fights in the UFC and is a former Lightweight champion. Yet, Oliveria’s +185 moneyline has an implied win probability of 35%. That tells me sportsbooks are trying to bait UFC fans to back Oliveira and the right move is to lay it with Tsarukyan (21-3, 8-2 UFC).
Fans bet on boxing and MMA differently than they do team sports. They chase the value with plus-money underdogs when betting on combat sports, but bet favorites in the NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. FOX Sports gambling reporter Pat Everson Tweeted out Friday that an MMA oddsmaker told him "The public is betting Pereira … the sharp bets come in on Hill. It's looking like a Pros vs. Joes fight."
Charles Oliveira faces off with Arman Tsarukyan during the ceremonial weigh-ins for UFC 300 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Tsarukyan is 4th in the Lightweight division. In his UFC debut, he went the distance but lost unanimously to Lightweight champion, and the top-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, Islam Makhachev. His other loss in the UFC was a 5-round unanimous decision vs. Mateusz Gamrot, the 5th-ranked fighter in the UFC Lightweight division. Per MMADecisions.com, 15 of 22 MMA media outlets scored the fight in favor of Tsarukyan.
Lastly, Tsarukyan is seven years younger with a better significant-strike-landed-per-minute differential and a better takedown defense. Again, I'm parlaying this with "Bo Nickal to beat Cody Brundage in Under 1.5 rounds" at DraftKings (-114).
Parlay Leg #2: Arman Tsarukyan to beat Charles Oliveira.
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Lightweight: Justin Gaethje (-155) vs. Max Holloway (+130)
Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) knocked out Dustin Poirier in the 1st round of their bout for the UFC’s BMF ("Baddest Motherf***er") Championship last summer. He defends his BMF belt vs. Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC) Saturday. When you look at the Gaethje-Holloway preview on ESPN, it says both are "Strikers" under the "Fighting Style" tab. With that in mind, I give Holloway the edge even though he is the smaller fighter.
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White called Holloway "Probably the greatest featherweight of all time" on ESPN’s First Take. Featherweights are 145 pounds and Gaethje is 2nd in the Lightweight division, for 155-pound fighters. That said, Holloway has a +2.4 significant-strike landed per minute differential and Gaethje is -0.1. Plus, Holloway has better takedown accuracy and defense and more wins by submission (2-1).
Also, this is a 5-round fight and Holloway is used to "going the distance". He is 12-6 in fights by the judges while Gaethje is 4-0. Yet, Gaethje has never gone the distance in a 5-round fight. Holloway had eight consecutive fights decided by the judges from April 2019 to April 2023. This includes three UFC Featherweight title fights vs. Alexander Volkanovski, the UFC’s 8th pound-for-pound ranked fighter.
Essentially, I don’t think Gaethje can get a knockout and Holloway has more technical skills. Or so I’ve read. I bet on three UFC events a year, usually when there aren’t many sports on, such as Saturday.
Bet 1u on Max Holloway to beat Justin Gaethje for the UFC ‘BMF’ Championship (+130).
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Women’s Strawweight Title Bout: Zhang Weili (-500) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+380)
This is the 1st of two title fights on the UFC 300 card if you count the "BMF Championship", which I don’t. Weili (24-3, 8-2 UFC) defends her belt against Yan Xiaonan (17-3, 8-2 UFC). According to MMAJunkie.com, this is the 1st all-China title fight in UFC history for the Women’s Strawweight title, which means I don’t know anything about either fighter.
Yan Xiaonan is pumped up after defeating Jessica Andrade during UFC 288 at Prudential Center in New Jersey. (Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports)
Regardless, I want to sprinkle on the underdog. Weili is a well-rounded fighter with 11 KO/TKOs, eight submissions, and five victories by decision. You could nearly quadruple your money if Xiaonan wins. These fighters are both 8-2 in the UFC and have nearly the same significant strike-per-minute margin. Nevertheless, Xiaonan has better takedown accuracy and defense, per UFC.com. Ultimately, I feel like gambling and I hope I've banked enough winnings in the previous fights to make this a free-roll.
‘Sprinkle’ 0.25u on Yan Xiaonan winning the UFC Strawweight Belt (+380).
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Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira (-135) vs. Jamahal Hill (+114)
Hill (12-1, 6-1 UFC) is fighting to regain his Light Heavyweight. He had to vacate it after rupturing his Achilles tendon in a basketball game during a UFC promotional event. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) beat Jiří Procházka for the vacant belt at UFC 295 in November 2023. Despite being the champ, this is Pereira's 3rd fight in this division after fighting Israel Adesanya in two straight UFC Middleweight title bouts.
VSIN is reporting that more than three-fourths of the action is on Pereira as of 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday. However, the Brazilian opened as a -165 favorite and I'm following the line movement instead of the public. Especially, considering Pereira is the UFC's 4th-ranked pound-for-pound fighter and Hill isn't in the top 15. It feels like Pereira should be a bigger favorite Saturday.
Each has Brown belts in jiu-jitsu, but both are strikers and Hill is typically the busier fighter. Hill lands nearly four more significant strikes per minute than he absorbs, while Pereira has a +1.4 significant-strike-landed-per-minute differential. That might be because Pereira has fights with Adesanya and Sean Strickland. But, that's baked into this line and taking Hill to pull off an upset.
Bet 1u on Jamahal Hill winning the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship (+114).
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