UFC 290 Best Bets: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez
UFC 290 Saturday, July 8th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is a 2-title fight card. The belts up for grabs are the featherweight and flyweight championships. UFC 290's prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET with the main card going off at 10 p.m. ET.
Featherweight champion Alexander The Great Volkanovski returns to the division after fighting for the Lightweight title in February. Volkanovski faces interim featherweight champ Yair Rodriguez Saturday.
The co-main event features UFC Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno against No. 2 ranked Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja for the third time. Pantoja enters on a 3-fight win streak and Moreno has fought five straight title matches.
Disclaimer: I'm a "casual UFC fan" at best. Typically, I only bet Jon Jones and Israel Adesanya UFC cards or in the summers when there is no NFL and NBA. The latter is the situation Saturday. That said, I did my homework for this ...
UFC 290 Fight Card
Featherweight Title Bout: Alexander Volkanovski (C) vs. Yair Rodriguez (interim-C)
Volkanovski returns to the featherweight division after stepping up to fight Islam Makhachev for the Lightweight belt at UFC 284. Makhachev beat Volkanovski by unanimous decision. Rodriguez made Josh Emmett tap to win the interim featherweight championship at UFC 284.
Both are "strikers" yet Volkanovski has better striking stats with a higher rate of KO/TKO wins (50-38%). Volkanovski lands more significant strikes per minute and absorbs fewer. Rodriguez has four submission wins in his career including in his last fight.
But, three of those submissions were in Rodriguez's 1st six fights. His last opponent, Emmett, was a striker with a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Volkanovski is a black belt in jiu-jitsu that has never lost by submission.
He swept Max Holloway in a title-fight trilogy from 2019-22. Holloway has the most wins ever as a UFC Featherweight at 19 and ranks 2nd behind Rodriguez in the division. Volkanovski is the more well-rounded fighter with more experience in 5-round title fights.
Alexander Volkanovski celebrates his win in the UFC featherweight championship fight at the UFC 276 event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Finally, this is a "legacy fight" for Volkanovski. He's tied with Holloway with 2nd-most title wins at featherweight with 10. After losing at lightweight, Volkanovski will further cement his legacy as The Great in the featherweight division.
BET: Alexander Volkanovski to Win by Any Knockout, Submission or DQ (+130) at DraftKings
Flyweight Title Bout: Brandon Moreno (C) vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Honestly, this feels like "wrong fighter favored". This actually the 3rd installment of Moreno-Pantoja. These two fighters met in a UFC Fight Night in 2018 and Shooto: Brazil 12 in 2009 and Pantoja won both bouts.
Both are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialists. However, Pantoja has a higher submission average per 15 minutes. Pantoja has more significant strikes landed per minute and a higher significant strike differential.
Moreno is the favorite because of his 2-1-1 record in four title fights vs. Deiveson Figueiredo in his last five matches. Figueiredo is the No. 1 challenger at flyweight and a former 2-time champ.
But, both men lost to Figueiredo by decision. Also, both Moreno and Pantoja have only lost on the judges' scorecards in their careers.
Lastly, per VSIN, more bets and money at DraftKings is on Moreno. I'm assuming bettors will parlay Moreno and Volkanovski for a better payout. The sportsbooks will need either one of the 'dogs to bust those parlays.
BET: Alexandre Pantoja to win (+165) at DraftKings
3-Fight UFC 290 Parlay (-116)
This is where my "UFC betting squareness" shows. I'm not going to pretend I follow mixed marital arts regularly. The only reason I'm betting UFC 290 is because of the bare sports slate this weekend. But, I do like the favorites in the three following fights ...
Robert Whittaker (25-6) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (19-2) in a Middleweight bout
Whittaker has won five consecutive bouts by unanimous decision after losing via KO/TKO to Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight strap.
Robert Whittaker punches Israel Adesanya in their UFC Middleweight championship fight during the UFC 271 event at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. (Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC)
The only person to beat Whittaker in the Middleweight division is Adesanya who is fifth in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. Whittaker is 15th-ranked pound-for-pound fighter and the 2nd-ranked Middleweight.
Du Plessis is 5th in the UFC's Middleweight division. Du Plessis tends to exert a ton of energy striking whereas Whittaker is used to fighting in wars. My read is Whittaker takes this fight the distance and out-points Du Plessis.
Jalin Turner (13-6) vs. Dan Hooker (22-12) in a Lightweight bout
Turner is three inches taller (6'3" to 6'0"), walks around nearly 10 pounds heavier (176.00-167.50) and has a longer arm (77-75") and leg reach (46-42.5"). He's also younger than Hooker and enters UFC 290 in better form.
Hooker has lost four of his past six fights including three before the final bell: Two by KO/TKO and a submission. Prior to losing a split decision to Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 285 in March, Turner won five straight, all before the 3rd round.
Finally, both are strikers but Turner lands more significant strikes per minute (5.63-4.83), absorbs fewer significant strikes (4.61-3.79), and has nearly double the knockdown average (1.33-0.62), per UFC.com.
Bo Nickal (4-0) vs. Val Woodburn (7-0) in a Middleweight bout
This is my "free square" in the 3-fight parlay. Nickal (-1500) at one point was the biggest favorite in UFC history when his odds to beat Woodburn got up to -2500. He is a 3-time NCAA Division I champ in wrestling at Penn State from 2017-19.
As a college wrestling legend, Nickal received a ton of hype when signing his UFC contract. Nickal thus far has lived up to the hype. All four of Nickal's wins are by 1st-round submissions.
Bo Nickal submits Jamie Pickett in a middleweight fight during UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Woodburn makes his UFC debut Saturday with a lot less hype and is supposed be a tune-up for Nickal. In fact, Woodburn earned a UFC contract is because stepped up to take this fight after Tresean Gore tore a wrist ligament July 4th.
Nickal is outside the top-15 UFC Middleweight rankings. An impressive victory at UFC 290 over Woodburn could shoot Nickal into the top-10 and closer to a title shot vs. Adesanya.