UFC 285 Jon Jones Vs. Ciryl Gane Gambling Guide
The UFC 285 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 4th. Early prelims start at 5:30 p.m. ET, the prelims at 8 p.m. and the main card, featuring two title bouts, begins at 10 p.m. on pay-per-view.
UFC 285 is headlined by the return of all-time great Jon Jones fighting Ciryl Gane for the vacant UFC Heavyweight title and UFC Women's Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko defending her crown against Alexa Grasso.
Heads up: I rarely bet UFC events and the only fighter I follow is Jon Jones. All of my analysis is well-researched but I don't have a record to tout or any true experience betting the UFC. It's BDE as the kids say.
UFC 285 Main Card
Men's UFC Vacant Heavyweight Title: Jon Jones (-170) vs. Ciryl Gane (+145)
Spoiler alert: I'm betting JON JONES (-170) and was always going to bet Jones at -500 odds or lower (towards +100). Jones is a fellow upstate New Yorker and I've followed Jones for his whole career.
After a 3+ year layoff, Jones is back to solidify his legacy as the greatest MMA fighter ever. He has the most title fight wins in history at 14 and vacated the UFC's Light Heavyweight belt for this new challenge.
Dominick Reyes and Jon Jones in their UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout during UFC 247 at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. ( Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Gane lost the UFC Heavyweight belt in his 1st title defense. Francis Ngannou beat Gane at UFC 270 by unanimous decision in 2022 after Gane knocked Derrick Lewis out at UFC 265 in 2021.
Ngannou was stripped off the belt when he couldn't reach a contract agreement with the UFC, setting up the Jones-Gane vacant UFC Heavyweight title bout.
There is no shame in losing to Ngannou but the way Gane lost is what gives me confidence in Jones. Ngannou, who doesn't specialize in wrestling, held control by 8:29-2:51, according to 538.com.
Francis Ngannou grapples on the ground with Ciryl Gane in their heavyweight title fight during the UFC 270 event at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Jones on the other hand is a black belt in judo and one of the best grapplers in UFC history. He also has the striking ability to go toe-to-toe with Gane who is a world-class kickboxer.
Also, Jones is known for his meticulous fight prep and pointed out Gane's glaring weaknesses in a recent UFC 285 press conference.
“He does have the striking down. I don’t think defensively he’s a very strong kickboxer. He has a really nice offense. Like I said, his defense is mainly in his footwork, and two other big holes are jiu-jitsu and wrestling.”
My point is Gane is too one-dimensional to beat the GOAT. Jones throws significant strikes 57% of the time and Gane 59%. But, Jones defends significant strikes at a 64% clip and Gane 62%.
Jones has nearly triple the takedown average of Gane (1.85-0.62) and a 40% higher takedown defense average (95-55%). Jon Bones Jones is going to win the title via points by controlling the fight with his grappling.
BET: Jon Jones to win (-170) & Jones to win by decision (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jon Jones' odds vs. Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, March 3rd at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Women's UFC Flyweight Title: (Champ) Valentina Shevchenko (-750) vs. Alexa Grasso (+550)
Grasso literally has a "puncher's chance" but that's about it. Shevchenko opened at -550 odds, according to MMAoddsbreaker.com, and has been steamed up to -750.
Shevchenko, who is the greatest female Flyweight in UFC history, has the most title fight wins (8), the most KO/TKO wins (4), and takedown accuracy (70.5%).
If this fight gets to the ground, Grasso is screwed. More importantly, Shevchenko has much better fight defense. Shevchenko has 1.90 significant strikes absorbed per minute whereas Grasso is at 4.02.
Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso face off during the UFC 285 Press Conference in Las Vegas. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
The heavier juice on the UNDER 4.5 rounds (-150) is suspicious considering Shevchenko would be better off taking this fight to the mat. Eight of Grasso's 10 UFC fights have been decided by the judges.
Shevchenko has won by KO/TKO in two of her last three title fights and three of her last five. My read is Grasso pushes the fight since her only path to victory is a KO/TKO and Shevchenko makes Grasso pay.
That said, Shevchenko's "Method of Victory Double Chance" via KO/TKO or submission is priced the same as the Over/Under 4.5 rounds at -150.
I'll opt for the total rounds instead because I'm fearful of Grasso's aggressiveness. Remember, this is a 5-round title fight and the Under 4.5 (-150) cashes if it ends before 2:30 remaining in the 5th round.
BET: UNDER 4.5 rounds in Shevchenko-Grasso at DraftKings
Odds for Over/Under rounds in Shevchenko-Grasso at UFC 285 from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, March 3 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
Men's Welterweight Bout: Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
All 16 of Rakhmonov's fights have been decided by either KO/TKO or submissions and five of Neal's nine UFC fights have not gone to the judges.
Neal's fight style is listed as "striker" but Rakhmonov has the higher arm and leg reach. Also, Neal has way more significant strikes absorbed per minute at 5.28-1.39.
Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov face off during the UFC 285 Press Conference in Las Vegas. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
My look in this fight is for Rakhmonov to win on the scorecards. Neal has the 5th-best takedown defense rate in UFC welterweight history but Rakhmonov has much better striking accuracy (71.5-53.4%).
Rakhmonov will out-point Neal by using his reach advantage but Neal will keep this a stand-up fight. Three of Neal's last four fights have went the distance.
BET: Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by decision (+200) at DraftKings
Odds for Shavkat Rakhmonov to beat Geoff Neal by decision at UFC 285 from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Men's Lightweight Bout: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
Gimme the American striker over the Polish wrestler any day of the week. Turner has gone from +205 opening odds down to the current number (+185) and I doubt that's square money.
Also, Turner has the best striking differential in UFC middle history with a minimum of fight bouts. Turner's significant strikes landed per minute nearly doubles Gamrot's (6.48-3.26).
Gamrot's takedown accuracy is only 31%, Turner plays good takedown defense (77%) and Turner's submission average is way higher (1.99-0.21).
BET: Jalin Turner to win (+185) at DraftKings
Jalin Turner's odds vs. Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 285 from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Men's Middleweight Bout: Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
Nickal is making his UFC debut and I've never heard of Pickett before. I'd suggest finding an experienced MMA handicapper to tail in this fight.
Pickett has lost four of his six career UFC fights, the last three by either KO/TKO or submission. But, that's baked into Pickett's fat odds of +1000, which opened at +900.
Bo Nickal and Jamie Pickett face off during the UFC 285 Press Conference in Las Vegas. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Nickal is a NCAA champion wrestler and has been wrestling with Jon Jones leading up to UFC 285. If anything, I'd take Nickal to win via KO/TKO/DQ because I think he grounds and pounds Pickett into a stoppage.
However, since I don't have much data for either fighter and I've already hamstrung my UFC 285 bankroll with four bets, I'll PASS ON NICKAL-PICKETT.