Two Plays For Phillies Vs. Diamondbacks

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 ET

I've talked to a few people that write about sports for a living and mentioned that I wonder if people care about you focusing on the same player or topics over and over again. The consensus is that they don't but when it comes to gambling, the only thing people care about is winning. Tonight, I think I've found a winner on the arm of a guy that I've backed over and over again, Merrill Kelly.

The Phillies were my team this season, I thought they were going to be phenomenal. They added Trea Turner and were coming off their World Series run. Then the season started and they were in last place for a good portion of it. Now, they are starting to play better baseball and have almost climbed their way back to a .500 record. That doesn't mean everything is solved for them, but right now they are playing better. One big area of weakness for them thus far has been road games. Tonight they send out Ranger Suarez to the mound. He's actually been better on the road than at home this season, but he has only pitched 17.2 innings on the road this season. He is on a streak of three straight outstanding starts - he has gone at least six innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in those starts. Diamondback hitters have been successful against him though.

The Phillies take on the Diamondbacks. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The Diamondbacks are the surprise of baseball this season. They have one of the best records in baseball and are even playing better than I expected. I thought they would finish third in the division, but there is a legitimate possibility that they will be competing for first or second in the division. Good for them; these Cinderella stories are always fun. Tonight they use one of their best pitchers, Merrill Kelly to keep their magic alive and stop Suarez from turning them into pumpkins. Kelly has continued his great pitching from last year. He has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts and has allowed more than two earned runs in just four of those starts. The Phillies have hit him well in the past, specifically Turner.

There is a lot to consider for this game. The Phillies have been bad on the road. Suarez has pitched very well. The Diamondbacks have been great this season, and Kelly has pitched great this season. I do lean towards Kelly and the Diamondbacks at -125 and will play it, but I also lean towards the under 8.5 in the game. I'll probably play both.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024