Two Plays As Cy Young Hopefulls Take the Mound

Phillies vs. Tigers, 6:40 ET

It was a great day yesterday as I was finally able to grab a 2-0 day after a bunch of 1-1 days and some 0-2 days. I won't say that both games were blowouts, but we were able to get wins on both of them, and it made me think I probably need to get back to some plus money plays and avoid some of the favorites. Yesterday I was able to take down a +144 win. I took the Rangers through five innings and they were able to win 2-1, but they lost the game 6-3. I play a lot of first five because I focus so much of the time on the starting pitchers. Another game that I played yesterday, a run line game between the Phillies and Tigers hit, and I'm going back to it as there is a great matchup on the mound.

There isn't much to talk about with the Phillies that I didn't say yesterday, so I'll just try and talk about some individual players that I haven't spoken about in too many past articles. We all know about Bryce Harper as one of the best players in baseball and the leader of the team. However, there are a lot of very good players in that lineup. Kyle Schwarber is not your prototypical leadoff hitter, but he is hitting the ball even better than last season. Schwarber is hitting .249 for the season after batting under .200 last season. He was still great last year, scoring 108 runs and taking 126 walks. This season he has 57 walks and is already on pace for around 145 hits after having just 115 last year. Strikeouts have always been an issue and he will probably have 200 for the season for the third consecutive year. Schwarber is able to set the table for the team and find ways to get on base for the squad to drive him in. He has Harper behind him, but he also has Trea Turner, and perhaps more importantly Alec Bohm. Bohm has been amazing this year, with the 4th best batting average in baseball at .313. He has 64 RBIs, the third most in the league, and is 14th in OPS. He was a big key to the win yesterday as he went 4-for-5 with three RBIs. Tonight, they look to do it again as Ranger Suarez takes the ball. Suarez has been ridiculous this season with a 10-1 record and a 1.75 ERA, the best in the league. He also has a 0.89 WHIP, which is good for second in the league. He has posted back-to-back quality starts, and 10 quality starts in 15 outings. Tigers hitters haven't seen much of him with only three hitters having experience against him and they are just 5-for-21 combined.

Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal throws a pitch vs. the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park in Detroit. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

As far as the Tigers, the team is now six games under .500. I'm not sure if we should consider this a good thing or a bad thing for this club. Expectations were low coming into the season, and they've probably exceeded them through the first half of the year, but I'm sure overall they are disappointed. The team looked like a true contender as they started the year, but the offense was never going to be enough to carry the club. Javier Baez, their starting shortstop is injured, but he is also their biggest signing over the past few years and he really hasn't worked out. His first year, he hit .238 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs, but last year he went down to .222 with just nine homers. Now he has been injured and only played 53 games this season. However, he has hit just .183 for the year and only one homer. Perhaps when he returns from injury the club will get a bit of a boost, but I personally don't think he is the answer. The pitching staff, for the most part, is what has kept the Tigers relevant. Today's starter, Tarik Skubal is the best one on the roster. This season he is 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA, good for seventh in the Majors, and a 0.97 WHIP which is ninth. He also has amassed 105 strikeouts for the season which puts him at 11th. He should be part of the Cy Young conversation if he keeps it up this season. However, he has put up back-to-back outings where he has allowed four earned runs. In fact he has allowed four earned runs in three of his past six outings. All of them were road outings, but his home starts are better and he is at 2.01 for a home ERA. Only Whit Merrifield has been able to get a lot of at-bats against Skubal and he is just 5-for-20. the other three hitters are 1-for-7 against him.

I understand the Phillies offense is good, but I think this is a rebound game for Skubal. I don't envision anything less than a quality start for Skubal in this game. Suarez has been amazing this season and I expect it to continue against a terrible Tigers offense. The under really is the only option in this game. I think both pitchers are going to go six or seven innings and I expect very few runs. I don't feel as comfortable taking the run line for the Phillies today. However, I do think the Phillies win the game on the moneyline. I'll play the moneyline and the under 7.5 in this one. If you only play one, take the under.