Two Plays In The Battle Of Texas

Rangers vs. Astros, 4:10 ET

If there are any Texas readers out there, send me a message on Twitter and let me know: is this a big rivalry in your state? Houston is just a city, do the Rangers, prefaced by Texas, represent the entire state? Or does Houston just represent the city, and the rest of the state like the Rangers? I suppose ultimately none of it matters, and there are probably surveys out there that can tell me this information. Either way, I'm intrigued because these two teams have won World Series recently and that leads to a lot of bandwagon fans. Despite what the good people of Texas may feel for this game, we will have a clear rooting interest as the Rangers take on the Astros.

Having won last year's World Series, the Rangers came into this season with a ton of expectations. They didn't have much turnover so they were expected to potentially run it back. Injuries have derailed that a bit this season, but they are still a decent enough squad. The problem is that they are sitting under .500 for the year and have been for the majority of the season. Yes, there are still issues, and still injuries, but they have the potential to make a big run in the second half of the season, so don't count them out. Their pitching staff recently got back another Ace in Max Scherzer, so that is already one huge piece to the puzzle. Tonight they have one of their more reliable starters (when healthy) Nathan Eovaldi going for them. On the season, Eovaldi is 6-3 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He doesn't qualify for the league lead right now, but those numbers would be in the top-25 of the league if he did qualify. It isn't like he has extremely limited appearances this season. He has thrown a total of 87 innings this year. He's off to a great start this July as well with 14 innings of five hits and two earned runs total. It hasn't been a perfect season for Eovaldi as he has made 15 starts, and only has seven quality starts. He's also allowed four or more earned runs three times this year. The other eight starts of his season haven't been bad, he just hasn't been able to finish six innings in most of them. He did face Houston once this year, and it was in Houston. He allowed five earned runs and two homers in six innings off of eight hits and two walks. Overall, Houston has hit him well with 46 hits in 137 at-bats.

Jul 7, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (41) confers with catcher Cesar Salazar (18) in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros won the World Series the year prior to the Rangers winning. We've heard all about the garbage gate or whatever you want to call it, but they won fair and square that year. They've also been consistently good for years now and even after a tough start this season, they have rebounded and once again look like they are probably destined for the playoffs. They've been great at home this year and continue to find ways to win games. The poor performance this season was never a result of their offense. The team is hitting .263 for the season with 448 runs already. The issue has been their pitching staff, but they were also missing pitchers this year and struggled. They still have an ERA over four, but it is lowering as is their WHIP. Today they have Spencer Arrighetti on the mound, a man who has a 4-7 record and a 5.96 ERA. This is brutal look and I can't imagine the Astros are happy with him in the rotation, but they need him to fill a spot. He has been slightly better at home with a 5.01 ERA. Hitters are still hitting .279 against him and he has a 1.66 WHIP overall, so he isn't missing many bats, and he is walking about 2.5 batters per game. He has two quality starts in 16 starts. He has allowed more than three earned runs in six of the starts. Arrighetti hasn't seen the Rangers this season and never faced any of their hitters. That hasn't seemed to matter much to other teams though.

This seems like a game the Rangers should win, specifically through five innings. Both are playing pretty good baseball right now, so this could be a tighter game. I think the best way to play this is to fade Arrighetti early, but also play the over for the game. The Astros are a great offensive team and have a good history against Eovaldi. I'll play it both ways today and hope we can grab a sweep.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024