Two Player Prop Bets For NFL Kickoff Between The Detroit Lions And Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL is back, baby! Fans are looking to get in on the action, especially with legal sports betting becoming more ubiquitous across the United States. I already submitted my plays for the weekend, which you can read here. Last regular season, I hit 62% of my plays and am looking to get started on the winning track tonight with a couple prop bets in the NFL Kickoff Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.

I don't have a play on either the spread or the total in this one. Although, I do lean towards the under since 52.5 is a lot of points and the public loves to bet the over. However, I just can't quite pull the trigger.

But there are two prop bets that I like quite a bit.

Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery OVER 12.5 receiving yards against the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Kickoff

The key to succeeding in NFL betting is to identify what the market thinks is going to happen. The Detroit Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He's going to play a massive role in the offense, obviously. Plus, his offensive coordinator is hyping him up already.

However, NFL coaches are notoriously hesitant to rush rookies into action. That's especially true with the Lions on the road against the reigning Super Bowl Champions. We can use the public's perception of Gibbs to our advantage.

David Montgomery is the veteran in this backfield. He's going to play a lot more than people realize, especially early in the season. Plus, as a veteran, he has a pass-blocking edge which means he'll be on the field in passing situations.

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery has a good chance to beat his receiving yards prop bet in the NFL Kickoff Game against the Kansas City Chiefs. (Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Last year, Montgomery had over 12.5 yards receiving 11 times. And that was with Justin Fields playing quarterback. Mobile quarterbacks throw the ball to running backs less frequently. Why? Because when the play breaks down, Fields just runs the ball himself.

But Jared Goff can't do that. The second-most targeted player for the Lions last season (after Amon-Ra St. Brown)? D'Andre Swift. Lions running backs saw 115 targets last season, which averages out to nearly seven per game.

Again, everyone assumes that Gibbs is going to see all of those targets. Sure, he's going to catch passes. But don't count out Montgomery seeing more action than most expect.

Jared Goff longest completion OVER 35.5 yards

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a contract standoff with star defensive lineman Chris Jones and he's not going to play in the NFL Kickoff game. That's a huge deal. Jones elevates the Chiefs defensive line from below-average to above-average. Without him, they're going to struggle to get pressure against Goff.

Plus, the Lions offensive line is above-average, as well. That means Goff is going to have time in the pocket to allow routes to develop down-the-field. Goff completed at least one pass over 35.5 yards in 10 games last season. And, the Chiefs had the fifth-most missed tackles in the NFL last year.

Additionally, Kansas City defensive backs are going to be under pressure with a weakened defensive line, which means taking a few more chances at the line of scrimmage. With the Lions as an underdog in a game with a high total, Vegas is expecting a shootout and probably negative game script for Detroit.

Add all of that up, and Jared Goff completes at least one pass that goes for 36 yards or more.