Two NBA 'Locks' For Tuesday In Nuggets-76ers, Kings-Suns
I don't know about you but I'm getting sick of this 50-50 BS betting the NBA recently. It happened again Monday where I split my four picks 2-2. In fact, I'm so mediocre this season I'm down only a quarter-unit (u) through 191 NBA games bet.
Regardless, I'll say this until I'm blue in the face but I'm confident I'll end up winning money this NBA season. That wasn't the case last regular season. Yet, after the playoffs, my NBA bankroll was nearly even. So I'm going to keep grinding, expect success and plan to get above 0 in my ...
Tuesday Best Bets for the NBA
Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers (-115), 7:30 p.m. ET
This is only the 2nd meeting between two-time Nuggets NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and Sixers reigning MVP Joel Embiid since 2019. Jokic and Embiid have faced each other seven times in their careers. The 76ers are 5-2 in those games and Embiid is averaging more points, rebounds, steals, and blocks.
Also, this is the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) for the Sixers. However, they said Embiid would play Tuesday. Embiid is averaging 32.3 points on 68.6% true shooting with a +38 net rating in his previous three games this season on no rest. His true shooting and net rating are the best among his rest splits.
Sixers big Joel Embiid drives to the basket on Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Nuggets suck on the road. They are 7-13 against the spread (ATS) on the road with a 16th in non-garbage time net rating (-1.1), per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and -3.1 ATS margin.
Lastly, the 76ers are the deeper team. Both benches are in the bottom-10 of points per game (PPG). But, Philly's bench has a +2.0 +/-, which ranks 4th, and Denver's bench is -1.7 and that ranks 26th. Role players usually perform better at home so Philadelphia's depth should give it an edge Tuesday.
My prediction: Sixers 119, Nuggets 114
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (-4.5), 9 p.m. ET
Some might refer to this game as a "scheduled loss" for the Kings. They are playing their 5th game in seven nights, all on the road. While this is Phoenix's 3rd game in eight days. Sacramento is 2-0 overall and ATS in the 1st two meetings with the Suns this season.
Yet, Phoenix was missing Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the 1st Kings-Suns meeting this season and Beal and C Jusuf Nurkic in the 2nd meeting. Nurkic leads Phoenix with a +16.0 non-garbage time net rating, KD is +5.5, and Beal is +2.5, per CTG.
Phoenix Suns All-Star Kevin Durant makes a move on Kings SF Harrison Barnes at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
More importantly, the Suns are at full strength and they have the best starting 5 when everyone plays. For instance, Phoenix has a +27.8 non-garbage time net rating when Devin Booker, KD, and Beal are on the floor. This ranks in the 100th percentile of all 5-man lineups in the NBA.
Finally, the Kings are "smoke and mirrors" and, judging by the spread, sportsbooks know that. It feels like the sportsbooks are goading pro-Sactown money. Yet, per CTG, the Kings have a +3.9 win margin based on net efficiency. Meaning, Sacramento should have 3.9 fewer wins.