Two NBA Gambling Locks for Oct. 24: OVER Pacers-Sixers, Nets ATS
It's a bit of a ho-hum NBA slate for October 24th with only a couple of matchups that'll get attention in the shadow of Monday Night Football. Such as the Brooklyn Nets visiting the Memphis Grizzlies and the Chicago Bulls hosting the Boston Celtics.
My two favorite looks for today's NBA action include the Over in the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers game and the Nets upsetting the Grizzlies.
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers
Betting Details (DraftKings)
'Sharps' think Pacers-76ers will be high-scoring
At the time of writing, there's a Pros vs. Joe's scenario in the betting market for the total of Pacers-76ers. Nearly 60% of the is on the Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, according to VSIN.
But, a slight majority of the bets are on the Under. Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is considered the sharper side of the market because professional bettors place larger wagers.
This is a slight overreaction to back-to-back poor offensive performances out of Philly. The Sixers scoring just 105 points against an obviously tanking San Antonio Spurs Saturday is a little alarming.
However, Philly's 88 points to the Milwaukee Bucks is more understandable because the Bucks have one of the better defenses in the NBA. This will be a bounce-back game for the 76ers because ...
Indiana's defense sucks
The Pacers will be without their best defensive player in C Myles Turner who sprained his ankle in pregame warmups Wednesday. Sans Turner, Philly C Joel Embiid will have his way with Indy’s defense.
In two games vs. the Pacers last season, Embiid averaged 43.0 points on 74.1% true shooting (.681/.800/.720) with 16.5 rebounds. Not so coincidently, Turner played in neither of those Pacers-76ers meetings.
The Pacers' defense was 28th in adjusted defensive rating in 2021-22 and 19th through its first three games this season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The source of Indiana's defensive struggles is getting into foul trouble. The Pacers were 26th in adjusted defensive FT rate last season. They have the 2nd-worst adjusted defensive FT rate so far this year, per CTG.
This is a bad thing based on how Embiid and James Harden play. Harden and Embiid are two of the best in the league at getting to the charity stripe. The Sixers attempted the 3rd-most free throws per game last season.
Harden and SG Tyrese Maxey form an awesome offensive backcourt but aren’t any good at defense. The same goes for Indy’s backcourt of PG Tyrese Haliburton and SG Buddy Hield.
Indiana's guards will speed up the tempo in this game because a 3-point shootout is the most likely way the Pacers defeat the Sixers Monday. More possessions equal more points, generally.
Over-friendly trends
Indiana has gone Over the total in nine of the past 10 games dating back to last season. This coincides with the Pacers dumping veterans at the trade deadline last season to begin their rebuild. Following the All-Star break, Indy was 14-7-1 O/U with a 7.5 total margin.
Also, six of the last seven Pacers-76ers meetings have cashed an Over ticket. The Pacers are 17-7-1 O/U with a total of 226.5 or higher since the beginning of last year (+8.6 total margin). The Sixers are 26-18-3 O/U as double-digit favorites since 2018.
NBA Best Bet #1: OVER 228.5 Pacers-76ers (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to 229.5
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
Betting Details (DraftKings)
This is also a Pros vs. Joe's game with the presumed sharp side of the market backing Brooklyn while the public is betting on Memphis.
The reason for professionals staking the Nets is that the Grizzlies will definitely be without three defensive wings and F Dillon Brooks is listed on Memphis' injury report as "questionable".
Memphis is 0-3 ATS this season and got drubbed 137-96 Saturday by the Dallas Mavericks. Usually, I'd be looking to fade an overreaction to a lopsided result but Dallas exposed a flaw.
Brooklyn Nets All-Star Kevin Durant defending Memphis Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Grizzlies struggle to execute their half-court offense and the Nets have two of the five-best isolation scores in the Association (Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving).
In fact, Brooklyn was 10th in points per 100 half-court plays last season run whereas Memphis ranked 22nd, per CTG. If you can stop the Grizzlies in the fast-break and limit the turnovers, Memphis' offense goes into ruts.
Finally, Nets' Ben Simmons is one of the few athletes in the NBA that matches up with Grizzlies All-Star Ja Morant physically. If Simmons can make life difficult for Ja, Memphis will be at a real disadvantage because Brooklyn has the more talented roster.