2 NBA Bets Wednesday From A Dude Who Should Retire From Betting Hoops
This NBA betting slump I'm currently in is downright embarrassing. I spend too much time looking at these spreads and matchups to be -16 units (u). Often, I get screwed by load management. Other times, the teams I bet on choke. To be clear, I am NOT a bad NBA handicapper. Sometimes the teams I back let me down.
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A wise man, and a good gambler, would take a break from betting on the NBA given this dry spell. What am I going to do? Fire out of a hole. Or dig myself deeper. Who knows? That's the excitement of it all. Either way, I talked myself into having an edge on the total in Cavaliers-Hawks and a side in Bulls-Jazz. Wish me luck. Lord knows I need it now more than ever.
NBA Wednesday Betting Card
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
OVER 214.5 in Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
My projection for this game was "Cavaliers 113, Hawks 109". When this game opened with Cleveland as -1.5 favorites and a 222 total, I didn't see an edge. The market has hammered the Under and the total is as low as 214.5. Well, I plan on being part of the "buy-back" for the Over. All three of the referees assigned to this game have officiated more Overs this season.
The first three Cavaliers-Hawks games this season had totals of 238.5, 236, and 231.5, two of which went Under the total. Granted, both teams have less firepower than in their previous meetings. Atlanta is missing All-Star PG Trae Young for the foreseeable future. The Cavs will be without three starters Wednesday: All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell, SG Max Strus, and PF Evan Mobley.
Atlanta Hawks SG Dejounte Murray grabs a rebound vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers at State Farm Arena in Georgia. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
But, Mobley is the anchor of Cleveland's defense. Mitchell and Strus have better on/off defensive ratings than on/off offensive ratings, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Mobley's and Mitchell's replacements are 3-point shooters and bad defenders. Plus, since the All-Star game, the Cavaliers are fifth in pace and the Hawks are ninth.
Lastly, I'm fading the recent results from both teams. Cleveland upset the Boston Celtics 105-104 and that game stayed Under the 217 total. While Atlanta is 2-4 to the Under following the All-Star game.
Bet 1.1u on OVER 214.5 in Cavaliers-Hawks (-105) at Caesars. The OVER is playable up to 217.
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Chicago Bulls (-3.5) at Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
I figured the Jazz would be favorites in this game. They are 19-11 straight up (SU) and 20-10 against the spread (ATS) at home with a +5.4 scoring margin and playing a Chicago team with a losing record. So, the Bulls opening as favorites suggests the market is buying stock in Chicago.
Furthermore, the Bulls are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as road favorites with a +4.4 scoring margin. All seven of their wins in these spots have been by at least six points. Chicago's scoring margin as a road favorite is skewed because it lost to the Detroit Pistons 118-102.
Also, the Bulls beat the Jazz 130-113 in Chicago on Nov. 6. But, Utah is missing several standout players from that matchup. Three of Utah's four leading scorers from that game aren't playing Wednesday. This includes All-Star PF Lauri Markkanen and center Walker Kessler, who are both out with injuries.
Chicago Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan drives to the basket on Utah Jazz PF John Collins at United Center. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Bulls have something to play for. They are 9th in the Eastern Conference and seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in tournament. Utah on the other hand is 11th out West and 5.0 games behind the 10-seed Golden State Warriors.
The Jazz's 127-115 home win over the Washington Wizards Monday was misleading. The Wizards held a lead entering halftime and Utah out-scored Washington by 11 points in the final frame. I.e. the Jazz got a lucky "front-door cover".
Finally, the Bulls have been leaving some meat on the bone from 3-point land. Post-All-Star break, Chicago is 9th in wide-open 3-point attempts (3PAr) rate but is only making 29.5 percent of those wide-open threes. Utah is 23rd in defensive wide-open 3PAr over that span. Eventually, the Bulls will start knocking down these open 3-balls.
Bet 1.1u on the Bulls -3.5 (-110) at Caesars. Chicago is bet-able up to -5.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.