Two MLB Father's Day Best Bets: Royals-Dodgers, Yankees-Red Sox

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From a betting perspective, I've been "fouling off pitches" in the MLB, so to speak. This week, I'm 2-3-1 and -1.40 units (u). One loss was in extra innings and another was by one run. Nevertheless, you aren't here for excuses, you're here for winners. As a reminder, all my articles end with "I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season". 

That's the case for Father's Day. I snuck in an UNDER 7 wager on the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles game and didn't have the time to write up a handicap. The TLDR version of this Under is that both are starting their aces and the situational trends point to a low-scoring affair. However, I have two more bets you can sweat while doing Father's Day stuff Sunday. 

MLB Betting Card: Father's Day, June 16 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. ET

This is the rubber match of the interleague set. The Dodgers won the series opener 4-3 Friday then the Royals evened the set with a 7-2 victory Saturday. 

Caesars Odds 

  • Moneyline (ML): Kansas City (+210) | Los Angeles (-260)
  • Runline (RL): Royals +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-125)
  • Total — 8 — OVER (-105) | Under (-115)

Starters

  • Kansas City Royals RHP Brady Singer: 4-3 with a 3.30 ERA.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow: 6-5 with a 3.24 ERA.

OVER 8 (-105) in Royals-Dodgers 

Six of LAD's last 10 games have combined for 9+ runs and the same goes for KC. Singer is 3-2 Over/Under (O/U) on the road this year and Glasnow is 5-2 O/U at home. Los Angeles's bullpen is solid but is heavily fatigued. Kansas City's bullpen is below average but well-rested. 

Furthermore, Singer's 3.30 ERA is misleading and due for regression. According to Statcast, the 2018 first-round draft pick grades out in the bottom-third of MLB starters or worse in xERA, xBA, exit velocity, chase rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Also, the Dodgers are raking this month and tough vs. right-handed pitching. 

Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani celebrates a two-run homer with SS Mookie Betts at Dodger Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani celebrates a two-run homer with SS Mookie Betts at Dodger Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

In June, the Dodgers are third in both wRC+ and WAR, first in BB/K rate, and fourth in wOBA, per FanGraphs. They rank third in all of those metrics against righties as well. Finally, LAD has the best one-through-three hitters in MLB: SS Mookie Betts, DH Shohei Ohtani, and 1B Freddie Freeman. 

BET 1.05 units (u) on OVER 8 in Royals-Dodgers (-105) at Caesars. The OVER is playable up to -120. 

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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Baseball's fiercest rivalry heads into a rubber match of its first three-game set this year. New York won the first, 8-1, Friday, and Boston rebounded with an 8-4 win Saturday. 

DraftKings Odds 

  • ML: NEW YORK (-135) | Boston (+115)
  • RL: Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-130)
  • Total — 9 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Starters

  • New York Yankees RHP Marcus Stroman: 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA.
  • Boston Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford: 2-6 with a 3.47 ERA.

NY Yankees -135 over Red Sox

In this era of power-pitching and guys hitting triple digits on the radar gun, Stroman is a change of pace. Stroman's fastball averages 90.3 mph and is the least-used pitch in his arsenal. Instead, he is a "ground-ball" pitcher and relies on breaking stuff, such as a sinker, cutter, slurve, and splitter. 

For whatever reason, Stroman has pitched better on the road this season: 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA. The opposite is true for Crawford. At home, he is 1-5 with a 4.11 ERA. More importantly, NYY's bullpen is third in ERA and has its best arms available, while Boston used its four-best relievers Saturday. 

Lastly, the Yankees hit right-handed pitching harder. They are 24 games above-.500 against righty starters this year. New York leads MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and BB/K rate and ranks fourth in hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs. 

BET 1.35u on the Yankees -135 ML at DraftKings. New York is bet-able up to -150. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.