Two MLB Best Bets For 'Jackie Robinson Day': Rangers-Tigers, Padres-Brewers

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MLB commemorates the greatest moment in sports history with Jackie Robinson Day, April 15th. My baseball betting has been idle since the start of the season. Between March Madness, The Masters, the conclusion of the NBA's regular season, and limited baseball data, I've been waiting until the summer to ramp up my MLB gambling. However, there's nothing else to bet Monday and baseball will be on in the background while I work on my taxes. With that in mind, let's fire up some MLB picks. 

MLB Betting Card for Jackie Robinson Day, April 15th. 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Texas Rangers (8-8) at Detroit Tigers (9-6), 6:40 p.m. ET 

This is the 1st of a 4-game series. The Rangers beat the Tigers 4-3 in the 2023 regular-season series. Texas had a +13 run differential in those meetings. 

Rangers RHP Michael Lorenzen makes his 2024 debut Monday. Lorenzen made his 1st-ever MLB All-Star Game last season while pitching for the Tigers then the Philadelphia Phillies. However, after a great 1st-half of the year in Detroit, Lorenzen cooled off in Philly. He finished 2023 with a 9-9 record and a 4.18 ERA. 

Furthermore, Lorenzen's 2023 numbers weren't all that impressive once you look under the hood. According to Statcast, Lorenzen ranked in the 35th percentile or lower in expected ERA, expecting batting average, exit velocity, whiff rate, and K-rate. 

Detroit gives the ball to RHP Reese Olson (0-1 with 6 ER over 10.0 innings pitched in two starts) Monday, whose numbers are worse than his form. Olson hasn't given up a home run yet this season and his .343 BAbip is a sign of bad luck. His groundball rate is 51.4% (the MLB average is 42.3%). 

Detroit Tigers closer Jason Foley throws a pitch against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports)

Detroit Tigers closer Jason Foley throws a pitch against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the Tigers have a more reliable bullpen. Texas's relievers rank 23rd in both ERA and WHIP as a unit, 25th in hits per nine innings, and 20th in BB per nine. Whereas Detroit's bullpen leads the MLB in ERA (1.86) and hits per nine innings and 2nd in WHIP. 

Finally, the line is moving toward Detroit despite lopsided betting action on Texas. The Yahoo! Sports app is reporting that roughly 80% of the action at BetMGM sportsbook is on the Rangers as of noon ET. The Tigers opened as +110 underdogs, have gone through zero, and are up to -118 favorites at FanDuel (the best number in the market). 

Bet 1.18u on Detroit's moneyline (-118) at FanDuel. The Tigers are playable up to -130. 

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San Diego Padres (9-9) at Milwaukee Brewers (10-4), 7:30 p.m. ET

I'm going to "buy low" on Padres All-Star RHP Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87 ERA). His .418 BAbip is more than 220 percentage points higher than the MLB average (2.96 BAbip) and is due for regression back to the mean. The results aren't there yet, but Musgrove still has a ton of movement for all six of his pitches, per Statcast. 

Brewers starting RHP Joe Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA) is off to a good start this season. However, Ross has a career 4.21 ERA and this is his 1st season in the big leagues since 2021 after missing the last two years with Tommy John surgery. These pitching staffs have comparable bullpens, so there's no edge to be gained in relief pitching. 

San Diego Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a 2-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

San Diego Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a 2-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Adding to that, both lineups are raking at the plate thus far, but I'm more confident in San Diego's lineup continuing to produce. Neither team made major additions to their lineups this offseason. From 2022-23, the Padres had a better WAR, wRC+, and wOBA, per FanGraphs. Plus, San Diego has three hitters that could show up in the NL MVP race — Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, while Milwaukee has one in Christian Yelich. 

Ultimately, my biggest betting angle in Padres-Brewers is this price is too good to pass up. MLB regular-season gambling is a crapshoot and anyone could lose bets based on bad luck in high-leverage moments. That said, if I made this bet 100 times, I'd expect San Diego to win 60 of these games. 

Bet 1.04u on San Diego's moneyline (-104) at Caesars. The Padres are bet-able up to -115. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.