Two Angles For Braves Vs Yankees

Braves vs. Yankees, 7:15 ET

I love to pick out matchups that I think have playoff potential. Sure, there can be value on games that features two teams that have no chance of winning. Typically, these are not public games so they don't get as much attention from the books or other people. With high profile matchups like the one today between the Braves and the Yankees, the books are likely to see more action, and there is more interest overall because the two squads are relevant. That doesn't mean betting is easier or harder, it just is an interesting ingredient in the soup as we cook up plays. 

Losing your best starter and your best player in the same season usually would knock a team out. Look at the Angels, they lose their best player every year, although they are typically irrelevant by the time Mike Trout goes out anyway. The Braves had to suffer through losing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the same season. They are still around 10 games over .500. While that might not be enough to win the division this year, I fully expect they will find a way to make the playoffs. They have a good enough team even without Strider and Acuna that they should at least have a shot at making and winning the World Series. Today they send out one arm that has been very reliable for them for the past few seasons in Charlie Morton. While Morton doesn't have the same "stuff" that he used to, he is still a very capable pitcher. He has a 4-3 record, 3.91 ERA, and 1.26 WHIP over 73.2 innings pitched. I don't personally think of him as a strikeout pitcher, but he has turned in 76 strikeouts this season, good for over one per inning. He has had a bit of a mixed bag this month, with two quality starts and the other outing saw him allow four earned runs over five innings. He hasn't been able to go six innings regularly for the club, but he gets fairly close and five is a fair expectation every time he takes the mound. His home ERA isn't substantially higher than the overall or road ERA. Yankees hitters have gotten the best of Morton in the past, going 45-for-145, good for a .310 average, and hitting seven home runs. Juan Soto should be in your fantasy lineups today. 

Apr 27, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) throws against the Cleveland Guardians in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees season of success continues and they have gotten stronger with the addition of Gerrit Cole. The lineup isn't the most potent in the world, but the batting order still reads like some sort of cheat code team in a video game. Maybe that is due to some of the names in the lineup being a bit past their prime, but the majority of guys should strike fear into the opposing pitcher. This season has clicked for the Yankees both offensively and on the mound. The club looked a bit shaky before the season as Cole went down, but the starters responded and they now are at least three deep and probably four deep in the rotation. Today they send out Marcus Stroman, arguably one of the best offseason signings for any team. Stroman was a steal and has been a huge reward for the Yankees. He has a 6-3 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. This month hasn't been the best for him as he has a 5.28 ERA. In two of his three starts he has allowed at least four earned runs. In the other start, he blanked the Royals over 5.2 innings on the way to a 10-1 Yankees win. Braves hitters have been pretty strong against him as well with 20 hits in 67 tries. 

This game deserves to be played two ways in the first five innings, but I am trying to limit myself to either one unit or one play. My first thought is that the first five innings will see some runs and we should expect an over for the first five. On the other side, I do think Stroman is the better pitcher and the Yankees are the more complete team right now. That leads me to want to take the first five run line in favor of the Yankees. I'll split the unit on both plays here as I do think both win, but with my current form, I've been too up and down to risk a unit on both. 

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