Twins Will Take Their Home Opener

Astros vs. Twins, 4:10 ET

I almost didn't do a second baseball play today. I was thinking that I was going to put a play out about a hockey game - that season is slowing down, too. I just thought that I'd be running or playing scared if I was going to avoid a baseball bet. There is nothing wrong with taking a day off, especially when things aren't going your way. For me, though, I decided that I have to put a play on this one. I'm going to put a play on the game between the Astros and the Twins. 

The Astros are somewhat expected to have a down year, but this year couldn't possibly have started the way that they would want it to. The Astros are just 2-4 for the season, and have lost three straight games. To be fair, it is just six games. Additionally, Houston struggled out of the gate last year and still ended up winning the division. This year though they don't have Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa (he's been gone for a while), George Springer (also gone for a while), or Alex Bregman in their lineup. Nor do they have Justin Verlander toeing the rubber any longer. I bring those guys up because the point is that this team continues to find success despite losing some of their best players. Today they send out Hunter Brown to the mound. He currently owns an 0-1 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. These are actually fairly in line with what he did last year over the course of the full season. He didn't have any drastic splits between home and away games. Brown has been better on the road most seasons than he has at home. Some bad news is that his day starts are typically worse than his night outings. Twins hitters are pretty good when facing Brown. Collectively, they have 21 hits in 71 at-bats against him, but they are striking out once every three at-bats typically. 

SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 16: Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros hits a single during the third inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, September 16, 2024 at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

The Twins are not off to a better start, and with their division they really can't afford to fall too far behind, even if it is just the first week of the season. The Twins also are just 2-4 for the year, but this marks the start of the year on their home turf. Perhaps there is reason to think they will have better luck here. They did win their last two games, beating the White Sox, a team that should be beaten in at least two of every three games this season, like the Twins did. The bats finally broke out as the team scored 14 runs in the final two games of the series. I don't think the Twins will be that good this season, but there is no way they will be this bad either. They send out Joe Ryan to the mound today in hopes of taking the opener. Ryan turned in a good performance the first game of the season, going five innings and allowing just one earned run. He allowed five hits, struck out five, and had no walks. Ryan hasn't been great against the Astros, allowing 21 hits in 77 at-bats. They also are striking out about a third of the time against him. However the hits against Ryan were mostly for extra bases compared to those that Brown has given up.

These teams and even the starters are basically identical at the moment. Both are 2-4, both are batting under .200, both have 20 or fewer runs scored this season, and both starters have given up 21 hits to their opponent over their starts. Seems a bit strange, and if this was football, or basketball, I'd tell you to take the points. Instead, I am taking the Twins. I think Ryan might be slightly better. With Brown's history during day games as well, I think we can fade him here and take the Twins to win.

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