Twins Will Rock Beat Up Braves With Ober On The Hill

Braves vs. Twins, 7:40 ET

I have to imagine, even if you are a more rookie bettor, you've heard the phrase "Scared money don't make money." Yesterday I felt like this was a lesson I wish I had thought of before I placed my bet for the game between the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox. I ended up playing the under through five innings and both teams were able to put up three runs late before the fifth ended. That resulted in a loss for me, but the problem is I was thinking we should play the Diamondbacks (I think I even put that in the article). I was too scared. I should've taken them and not the total. I'm sure that's easier to say now that the results are in, but I feel like it could've been a winner. Hopefully, today we avoid that same fate as the Braves take on the Twins.

The Braves are decimated and that might be part of the reason that this game feels like we might be able to get a steal from the books. Despite losing a bunch of their starters at different points of the year, including right now, they are still 10 games over .500. They currently are missing their third-baseman and second-baseman due to injury. It is hard enough to replace one player in your lineup, but now they have to find a way to steady the ship without both bats in the lineup. The Braves are 3-2 over their past five games and seem to have shifted from being offensively dominant to a little more focused on fielding and doing the little things needed to win. This could just be a small sample size, but it also could be good management and adjustments from the team. Today they have their ace, Max Fried taking the hill. He's had a good, but not great, year for Atlanta. For the season, he is 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. This season, he has been better on the road than he has been at home. August hasn't been the best month for Fried, and they could use a shutdown starter. Fried is coming off of his best start of the month, going seven innings and allowing just two earned runs on four hits and one walk. The Braves still lost the game 3-2, but it was at least better than the other three starts where he allowed a total of 12 earned runs over 13.2 innings. He has faced the Twins hitters 24 times and given up just six hits.

Apr 23, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried (54) pitches against the Miami Marlins during the first inning  at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

At the beginning of the season, I finally became a believer in the Twins. Playing in the AL Central, I looked at the team and though they had a legitimate chance to win the division by the start of September. We can now see I was wrong about that. The Guardians have the division right now, and probably will be able to seal the deal. The Royals are also battling and have been competitive within the division. This is a race that has been more interesting than most in the American League. Tonight, the Twins have Bailey Ober to throw against Fried and the remaining Braves hitters. Ober has put together a very nice campaign at 12-5 with a 3.54 ERA and a stellar 0.99 WHIP. Ober is locked in right now with 11 consecutive quality starts. The Twins are 8-3 over those 11 starts and cashing in on the success that he has brought to the club. If you look at his splits, Ober is better on the home mound than he is as a visitor. While the majority of Braves hitters haven't seen him, or are on the injured list, those that have seen him are 9-for-23 against Ober.

Ober has pitched so well lately it is hard to imagine it will just come to a halt against a Braves team that doesn't have all of the pieces they need. Fried is also not pitching all that well in the month. Sure, he can regain his form at any moment and once again be the best pitcher in the game. However, right now, I think the best play is to take the Twins and back Ober to continue his roll here. Back the Twins.

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