Turning The Page: NBA Best Bets For November 1 Include A Nuggets Vs. Timberwolves Playoff Rematch

The Los Angeles Clippers reminded me on Halloween why I hate them. They blew an 18-point first-half lead to lose 125-119 to the Phoenix Suns as +4.5 underdogs. LA cost me a 3-0 in NBA best bets Thursday, and my other two looks were rocking-chair covers. I finished October 12-13 and -3.38 units (u) in the NBA. 

I was 5-0 in player props, which is a good sign since I usually only bet them during the playoffs. If I can do a better job figuring out who will hit more threes, I'll start winning more bets. After all, the NBA has devolved into a 3-point shooting contest where teams just stand behind the arc and kick each other in the nuts until someone falls over. 

NBA Best Bets: Friday, November 1st 

• Bet 0.79u on Detroit Pistons PF Tobias Harris UNDER 13.5 points (-105) vs. the New York Knicks at BetMGM.
• Bet 1.1u on the Sacramento Kings -6 (-110) vs. the Atlanta Hawks at Caesars Sportsbook.
• Bet 1.65u to the Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (-110) vs. the Denver Nuggets at Fanatics Sportsbook.

Knicks at Pistons, 7 p.m. ET 

I recuse myself from betting this game because I'm a biased Knicks fan. Since my numbers say NYK will beat Detroit 112-104, there isn't value in betting a side or total because the Knicks are -6.5 favorites on a 217.5-point total. But, there is no bleeping way Pistons PF Tobias Harris scores 14+ points Friday, and his point prop is 13.5 points. 

While playing for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, Harris scored 12+ points once in his 10 regular-season and playoff meetings with New York. That one time was a 19-point effort in 49:12 minutes in an overtime game. Last regular season, Harris averaged 6.3 points on 34.0% true shooting (.314/.182/.250) with a 75 offensive rating in four games vs. NYK. 

Those true shooting and offensive rating marks were his worst vs. any team last season. Harris scored a season-best 18 points in a revenge game against the Sixers Wednesday. Otherwise, he is off to a terrible start this season and has scored 14+ points once. Harris is shooting career-worsts from the field (37.1%) and 3-point land (15.0%) through his first five games. 

More importantly, the Knicks have the best defensive wings in the NBA: Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart. Even New York C Karl-Anthony Towns, who is questionable for Friday, moves well on defense and can stay in front of smaller guys. Harris is averaging 12.6 points in 20 games vs. the Knicks since they hired head coach Tom Thibodeau in 2020. 

Best Bet for Knicks-Pistons: Detroit PF Tobias Harris UNDER 13.5 points 

_____________________________

Kings (-6) at Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET

First of all, Atlanta’s injury report is a nightmare. The Hawks are missing their second- and fourth-leading scorers, SF De’Andre Hunter and SG Dyson Daniels, and perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate, SG Bogdan Bogdanović. 

Hunter has a team-best +23.3 on/off net rating. He is Atlanta’s best perimeter defender, and Sacramento gets most of its offense on the perimeter. With that in mind, the Hawks are 28th in defensive rating and the Kings are eighth in offensive rating. 

Sacramento Kings SF DeMar DeRozan taking a step-back vs. Utah Jazz PF Lauri Markkanen at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. (Rob Gray-Imagn Images)

Also, don’t sleep on Sacramento acquiring All-Star wing DeMar DeRozan this offseason. DeRozan is scoring 23.0 points per game (PPG) on 55.2% shooting and the Hawks don’t have anyone who can stop him from scoring 25 with Hunter out. 

Furthermore, Atlanta’s defense allows the second-most wide-open 3-point shots per game, a sin in today’s NBA. The Kings have several 3-point shooters, including SF Keegan Murray, SG Kevin Huerter, and SG Malik Monk. 

Finally, Sactown is 25-15 against the spread (ATS) as road favorites since hiring head coach Mike Brown in 2022, 10-3 ATS as road favorites vs. Eastern Conference foes, and 12-6 ATS with a +12.1 scoring margin as road favorites of -5 or greater. 

Prediction: Kings 123, Hawks 111

_____________________________

Nuggets at Timberwolves (-4), 9:30 p.m. ET

This is a revenge game for Denver (2-2) after Minnesota (2-2) ended its title defense in the second round of the 2024 Western Conference Playoffs last season. Yet, the Nuggets won't get revenge Friday because they aren't playing well. They are 0-4 ATS and 27th in spread differential (-9.1), according to CleaningTheGlass.com. 

Denver eked out two overtime wins over the Toronto Raptors Monday and Brooklyn Nets Tuesday, both of whom were projected to be "tanking teams" in the preseason. Ultimately, three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić isn't getting enough help. He is scoring an NBA-best 31.5 PPG, but Nuggets PG Jamal Murray and SF Michael Porter Jr. are shooting worse than 40.0% from the field. 

Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic goes to the rack on the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the 2024 Western Conference Semifinals. (Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)

On the other hand, Minnesota's two losses are to the Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks. I was high on LA preseason and Lakers PF Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP level. Dallas All-Star Luka Dončić was the preseason betting favorite for NBA MVP and the Mavs beat the T-Wolves in the Western Conference Finals last season.

The Timberwolves are a much better 3-point shooting team, which is the most important thing in basketball nowadays. Denver is 24th in wide-open 3-point shots allowed per game and Minnesota is third. The T-Wolves make six more threes per game than their opponents while the Nuggets are -1.7. 

Lastly, Minnesota All-Star Anthony Edwards has nearly doubled his 3-point attempts per game, shooting 13.3 compared to 6.7 last season. Edwards is hitting a career-best 41.5% of those threes while scoring a career-best 30.0 PPG. He is one of four Timberwolves shooting at least 41.5% from behind the arc. 

Prediction: Timberwolves 115, Nuggets 107

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.