Trying To Snap An Epic NBA Betting Losing Skid With 2 Totals Sunday
I cannot even add "best bets" to NBA betting breakdown headlines anymore. Over the last 10 days, my NBA bankroll has dropped by roughly -10 units (u) in what's turning out to be an all-time cold streak. Now that the NFL season is pretty much over and my full-time gig is "sports betting writer", the NBA is one of the few sports to handicap. And, honestly, I'm betting the Association daily anyhow. Whether you fade or follow me, I have a few …
NBA Sunday Gambling Looks
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons (+7), noon ET
I'm not going to waste time with the analysis for Magic-Pistons since this article is publishing near the tip-off. Detroit has been playing better recently and Orlando's odds for this game don't match its power rating. But, I locked in a bet via X, formerly known as "Twitter", @Geoffery_Clark, so I'm adding it to my NBA 2023-24 betting record.
BET 1.1u on Detroit +7 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook. I'd bet the Pistons down to +5.5.
OVER 218.5 in Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, 6 p.m. ET
I bet the Over 224.5 in a G-League Grizzlies game when they hosted the Golden State Warriors on Friday. It was another loser in my current skid as Golden State punished Memphis 121-101, but that game stayed Under the total. Well, I got the game script I wanted in Warriors-Grizzlies.
It just didn’t cash because Memphis’s players suck. The Grizzlies were just 14 of 46 from behind the arc Friday, yet 46 threes is a ton. Low-key, Memphis has the third-highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in the NBA and Boston is first.
The Celtics shoot a ton of three because they are good at it. The Grizzlies do it because they don’t have any other way of scoring. Over their last six games, the Grizzlies are second in offensive wide-open 3PAr and the Celtics are fifth. Yet, Memphis is 23rd defensively and Boston is 29th.
Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum attacks the hoop vs. the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum in Tennessee..(Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports)
Boston has a much better offense than Golden State, so the Grizzlies-Celtics total should be higher (219.5) than the Warriors-Grizzlies total in Memphis Friday. Especially, considering the Celtics are at home Sunday. They average 121.2 points per game (PPG) at home this season. The Grizzlies are missing reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, PF Jaren Jackson Jr. too.
Furthermore, Boston is going to be pissed after putting up a dud against the LA Lakers Thursday. The Celtics lost to a LeBron- and Anthony Davis-less LA Lakers team 114-105 as -15 home favorites. Boston should score at least 130 points Sunday so all we need from Memphis is 90 or more.
The Celtics have one of the best defenses in the NBA. However, they allow a lot of wide-open threes. And Boston might take its foot off the gas defensively in the second-half if this game gets out of hand.
BET 1.08u on OVER 218.5 in Grizzlies-Celtics (-108) at DraftKings. The Over is playable up to 221.
UNDER 222.5 in Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 p.m. ET
Too much line movement for the total. It opened at 217 and there is a 222.5 at BetMGM as of 1 p.m. ET Sunday afternoon. First, Minnesota ranks third in defensive rating and Houston is fourth, per CTG. Second, the Over 216 cashed in the first Rockets-Timberwolves meeting this season when Minnesota beat Houston 122-95 Jan. 5. That same outcome would go Under Sunday’s 222.5 total.
Third, the Timberwolves lost to the Magic 108-106 and Houston hammered the Toronto Raptors 135-106 Friday. Both of those games went Over their totals. That Over in the Minnesota game snapped a 5-game streak of Unders for the T-Wolves. Plus, after a loss, they are 5-8-1 Over/Under (O/U). The Rockets are 7-15 O/U following a win with a -5.7 O/U differential.
Minnesota Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns drives past Houston Rockets PF Jeff Green and SG Aaron Holiday at Toyota Center in Texas. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Houston’s offense regresses on the road and Minnesota’s defense tightens up at home. For instance, the Rockets shoot 37.2% from 3-point land at home but just 32.2% on the road. Whereas the Timberwolves’ defensive 3-point shooting goes from 37.2% in away games to 32.7% in their home gym.
There’s basketball-based logic supporting a bet on the Under too. Both teams grab offensive rebounds at a below-average rate and rank inside the top five in defensive rebounding. I.e. there should be a lot of "one-and-done" possessions. Finally, both teams play at a below-average tempo and fewer possessions usually leads to fewer points. Particularly between two strong defensive teams.