Trifecta Of Winning Wagers Friday For Major League Baseball
You have to be a real MLB Seamhead to follow the games I'm betting on Friday. Is anyone interested in Pittsburgh Pirates baseball? No, not since the Willie Stargell days. How about the Minnesota Twins? Doubt it.
Two Unders are also on my MLB Friday betting card to make it even more boring. However, it doesn't matter how lame my bets are if they win. Let's make some money entering Memorial Day Weekend.
MLB Friday Fun
St. Louis Cardinals (23-29) at Cleveland Guardians (21-28)
Cleveland sends out the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, RHP Shane Bieber (3-3, 3.08 ERA) Friday. The Cardinals counter with LHP Matthew Liberatore (1-0, 3.00 ERA) who is one of the best young arms in their organization.
The Guardians are 3-13-1 Over/Under (O/U) this season as home favorites with a -1.8 O/U margin. Progressive Field is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB, according to Statcast.
Guardians RHP Shane Bieber throws a pitch during the 5th inning vs. the Miami Marlins at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Cleveland is 2-7-1 O/U in Bieber's starts with a -2.0 O/U margin and 0-3 O/U in his home starts this season. Five of Bieber's last seven outings have been "quality starts" (six or more IP with three or fewer ERs).
St. Louis is 5-8 O/U as road underdogs this season and has one of the best bullpens in MLB. The Cardinals' relievers are 8th in WAR, 4th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), and 7th in HR/9 rate, per FanGraphs.
MLB Friday Bet #1: UNDER 7.5 (-105) in Cardinals-Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays (26-25) at Minnesota Twins (26-24)
Betting odds for Blue Jays vs. Twins in the 1st five innings from DraftKings.
Both ball clubs are struggling lately: Toronto is 2-8 over the last 10 games and Minnesota is 4-6. But, the Blue Jays played fellow AL East foes during that stretch and are 8-2 vs. the AL Central this season.
Also, Toronto starting RHP Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.14 ERA) is one of the best starters in baseball. Gausman ranks 7th in Stuff+ among qualified MLB starters, according to FanGraphs.
He grades in the 90th percentile or higher in K%, BB%, and chase rate, per Statcast. Gausman has a 32.4% K-rate in 68 plate appearances vs. current Twins hitters with a .182/.233/.305 expected slash line.
Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman fires a pitch in the 1st inning vs. the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
Minnesota's starter Friday, RHP Louie Varland (2-0, 4.18 ERA), is 49th in Stuff+ and Toronto's lineup rakes righties. The Blue Jays are 4th in wRC+, 5th in wOBA, and 7th in hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching.
I'm avoiding Toronto's full-game run line and opting to bet the BLUE JAYS -0.5 (-110) in the 1ST 5 INNINGS instead. Minnesota's bullpen has better pitching peripherals and Toronto is 3-7 RL in Gausman starts this year.
MLB Friday Bet #2: Blue Jays -0.5 (-110) in 1st 5 innings
Pittsburgh Pirates (25-24) at Seattle Mariners (26-24)
Betting odds for the Pirates at the Mariners in MLB Friday, May 26th from DraftKings.
VSIN is reporting the total for Pirates-Mariners is a Pros vs. Joe's betting action at DraftKings. Roughly 60% of the money is on the UNDER while nearly that same rate of bets have been placed on the Over as of Friday morning.
The split is due to the public not recognizing Friday's starters in Pirates-Mariners. Neither Pittsburgh RHP Mitch Keller (5-1, 2.44 ERA) nor Seattle RHP George Kirby (5-3, 2.62 ERA) are household names
But, both have a sub-3.00 FIP ("fielding independent pitching") and may pitch in the MLB All-Star game this summer. According to FanGraphs, both Keller and Kirby are in the top 30 qualified starters for Stuff+.
Pirates RHP Mitch Keller
Courtesy of Baseballsavant.MLB.com (Statcast)
Mariners RHP George Kirby
Courtesy of Baseballsavant.MLB.com (Statcast)
T-Mobile Park in Seattle is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the MLB. Per Statcast, it has the 3rd-lowest park factor in baseball. The weather forecast is predicting a double-digit mph blowing in from left centerfield.
Pittsburgh's bullpen is well-rested after an off-day Thursday and ranks 12th in both FIP and HR/9 rate, according to FanGraphs. Whereas Seattle's bullpen leads MLB in FIP and HR/9 rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller delivers a pitch vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Speaking of "well-rested," Keller's last start was five days ago. Keller has a 1.95 ERA in his six starts on five days' rest. His K/BB rate more than doubles (8.8-4.0) on five days of rest compared to four.
Since the beginning of last season, the Mariners are 6-11-1 O/U in Kirby's home starts. Seattle has allowed three or fewer runs in Kirby's last seven outings.
Furthermore, Pittsburgh's lineup has been awful lately. Over the past two weeks, the Pirates are 27th in both WAR and wOBA and 28th in both wRC+ and hard-hit-rate.