The Masters 2024 Tournament Matchups Bets: Rahm-Xander, JT-Morikawa, DJ-Bryson
Head-to-head bets used to be my bread and butter for PGA TOUR gambling. Back when I actually made money betting on golf. Tournament match-ups have been hit-or-miss for me on TOUR this season but, overall, I'm up money. Regardless, The Masters 2024 is golf's Super Bowl, and I want to sweat four days of action at Augusta National Golf Club.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's The Masters 2024 Betting Bonanza ft. Mark Harris
That said, I've already allocated some units (u) towards outright bets, finishing positions, and "top players" markets. Plus, I want to save some ammo for live betting or round-by-round 2-ball match-ups. Hence, these head-to-head looks will only be half-unit wagers.
The Masters 2024 Tournament Match-up Bets
The odds chosen are the best available as of Wednesday, April 10th at 2 p.m. ET
Justin Thomas (-110) over Collin Morikawa
There are two ways a Thomas head-to-head bet over Morikawa wins. First, JT could outplay Collin. Thomas ranks ahead of Morikawa in my 32-round model at the Bet The Number (15th vs. 35th). Over that span, JT is longer off-the-tee (OTT), hitting his irons better than Collin, and much better around-the-green (ARG).
Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas walk the first hole during the 2nd round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Another way we could cash this bet is if Morikawa sucks at Augusta this week. Historically, Collin's short-game holds him back from winning more tournaments, but, his iron play is so good that he usually makes for poor ARG play. This season, Morikawa is 80th on TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) while Thomas is 6th in SG: APP.
Bet 0.55u on Justin Thomas (-110) to beat Collin Morikawa in a tournament matchup at DraftKings
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Xander Schauffele (+100) over Jon Rahm
Rahm is +1100 at DraftKings to go back-to-back at Augusta and Xander is right behind him with +1400 odds. Yet, according to my numbers, Schauffele is the smarter wager. Xander is 2nd in my 32-round model at Bet The Number and Rahm is 16th. Also, DataGolf.com says Schauffele is the better golfer. He's 2nd in that site's rankings and has more total SG over the last 20 rounds.
Jon Rahm surveys the 13th green during a practice round for the 2024 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the pressure of dealing with questions surrounding his LIV Tour exodus and hosting the Masters 2024 champions dinner could hurt Rahm's play. He's seemed flustered at press conferences during Masters week and has opposed the LIV Tour's tournament structure. However, even if Rahm tunes out all of that noise, Xander still has the game to beat him head-to-head this week.
Bet 0.5u on Xander Schauffele (+100) to beat Jon Rahm in a tournament matchup at DraftKings
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Dustin Johnson (+105) over Bryson DeChambeau
While DeChambeau is having a better season on the LIV Tour, per DataGolf.com, DJ won in Las Vegas and Bryson's best finish was a solo 4th in Jeddah. Also, Johnson is the 2020 Masters champion and DeChambeau struggles at Augusta annually. Bryson has missed back-to-back cuts at the Masters and his best finish is a T21.
Dustin Johnson celebrates with the green jacket after winning The Masters 2020 at Augusta. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, DJ ranks ahead of DeChambeau in my 32-round model at Bet The Number. Both hammer the ball OTT but Johnson is 15th in this field for SG: ARG over his last 32 rounds with shot-link data and Bryson is 79th. Essentially, this is a case of wrong golfer favored and the plus-money payout is too good to pass up here.
Bet 0.5u on Dustin Johnson (+105) to beat Bryson DeChambeau in a tournament matchup at BetMGM
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Complimentary Masters 2024 Content
The Masters 2024 Outright Bets, One-And-Done Pick: Hideki, Justin Thomas
Masters 2024 'Top Player' Bets For Finishing Positions
Rory McIlroy Holds Incredibly Short Masters Press Conference In What Seems To Be Another Preparation Shakeup
Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns Would Withdraw From Masters If Their Very Pregnant Wives Go Into Labor
Jon Rahm Loses It As Tyrrell Hatton Explains His Caddie Fell Over At Dinner Forcing Him Out Of The Masters
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.