Tournament Matchup Bets For THE PLAYERS Championship 2024

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Cashing both head-to-head bets in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 saved me from complete embarrassment. Two seasons ago, when I made money betting on the PGA TOUR, I was lights out in these tournament matchup bets. 

Generally speaking, last year was a horror show in the head-to-head markets. I almost got even at the end of the season by successfully betting Viktor Hovland to win the BMW and TOUR Championships in the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs. 

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Hopefully, that’s a sign of things to come. I might need to pay off my outright and placement bets for THE PLAYERS Championship with winnings from these tournament bets. I didn’t bet Scottie Scheffler (the reigning PLAYERS champion) or Rory McIlroy (World No. 2 and 2018 PLAYERS champion) this week. 

Knowing my luck recently, Scottie or Rory will crush this field. Despite my hot streak in these head-to-heads, I’m only betting three-fourths of a unit (u). 

Tournament Matchups for THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 

All of these head-to-heads can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook under the "Tournament Matchups" tab.

Tom Hoge (-130) over Eric Cole

Either DraftKings is baiting us with this matchup or it’s a gross mispricing. I chose the latter even though the former is much more likely. But, Cole’s odds to win THE PLAYERS is +10000 and Hoge is +6500. Cole won the PGA TOUR 2022-23, so perhaps the market is overvaluing him. 

Regardless, Hoge grades out much better in the stats I’m using for THE PLAYERS. These include Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP), Good Drives Gained, APP shots from 75-150 yards out, Par 5 scoring, etc. Well, Hoge ranks second in my 24-round model at Fantasy National and Cole ranks 60th. 

Tom Hoge chips onto the second green during the first round of The Masters 2023. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network)

Tom Hoge chips onto the second green during the first round of The Masters 2023. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Network)

Granted, Cole tied for 27th in his debut at THE PLAYERS last season. But, Hoge tied for third and shot a course-record 62 (-10) in the third round of the 2023 PLAYERS. Hoge gained 8.9 strokes on APP at TPC Sawgrass last season and he’s made the cut in all five starts here. 

Finally, Hoge enters THE PLAYERS in slightly better form. Cole was T10 at the Genesis Invitational last month, missed the cut at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago, and T21 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) last week. While Hoge finished T8 at the Genesis, T28 at the Cognizant, and T12 at the API. 

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Corey Conners (-110) over Adam Hadwin 

Essentially, the same analysis for Hoge vs. Cole applies to this battle of Canadians. Conners is sixth on my 24-round model at Fantasy National and Hadwin is 89th. Hadwin has missed two cuts in his last six starts and Conners hasn’t missed the cut since the 2023 U.S. Open in June. 

READ: THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 Picks To Win, One-And-Done

Conners is a much better ball striker, which is more predictive than short games. Over the last 24 rounds, Conners ranks fourth in this field both SG: APP and Ball-Striking (BS), and fifth in Good Drives. Whereas Hadwin is 108th in SG: APP, 79th in SG: BS, and 67th in Good Drives during that stretch. 

Corey Conners plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of The Players Championship 2022 at TPC Sawgrass - Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Corey Conners plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of The Players Championship 2022 at TPC Sawgrass - Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

Hadwin was T13 at last year’s PLAYERS and T9 in 2022 and Conners missed the cut last season and finished T26 two years ago. However, course history is less important at TPC Sawgrass due to the tough scoring conditions. The bottom line is I’ll take Conners’ ball-striking and recent form over Hadwin’s better course history. 

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Ludvig Åberg (+100) over Patrick Cantlay

The Swede’s game is in a better place at the moment. Åberg is +4.9 in total SG over his last five starts while Cantlay is +2.5. Ludvig was T25 in his debut at the Arnold Palmer last week despite being -4.2 SG: APP and -1.3 SG: Around-the-Green. Cantlay was T36 at the API last week and has lost strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four starts. 

Åberg has two more recent wins. Ludvig won the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour in September 2023 and The RSM Classic during the FedEx Fall in November. Cantlay’s last win was at the 2022 BMW Championship. 

Ludvig Aberg hits an approach shot on the fourth hole at The Sentry 2024 at Kapalua Golf - The Plantation Course in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Ludvig Aberg hits an approach shot on the fourth hole at The Sentry 2024 at Kapalua Golf - The Plantation Course in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

On one hand, I’m taking a risk with Åberg in this matchup since this is his debut at TPC Sawgrass. On the other hand, Cantlay doesn’t have great course history here. Last season, Cantlay snapped his three-missed-cut streak at THE PLAYERS with a T19. 

Even though this is Åberg’s first full season on the PGA TOUR, he’s having a better year than Cantlay. Åberg has banked nearly $3 million this season while Cantlay has raked in roughly $2 million. Ludvig has two top 10s and a runner-up finish in the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While Cantlay was T4 at the Genesis last month but blew the 54-hole lead Sunday. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.