TOUR Championship 2023 Best Bets: Hovland, Xander, Henley
At 1st I wasn't going to bet the TOUR Championship 2023. Then I hit Viktor Hovland at last week's BMW Championship 2023. Now I have some cash to throw on the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
But, the main reason I wasn't going to bet the TOUR Championship is it's weird. This is a no-cut event for the top-30 golfers in the FedExCup standings. Golfers have "starting strokes" based on how many FedExCup points they accumulated this season.
The TOUR Championship has been using the "starting strokes" format since 2019. Rory McIlroy chased down Scottie Scheffler to win last year's TOUR Championship.
In 2021, Patrick Cantlay won the FedExCup. LIV Tour defector, Dustin Johnson, was the 2020 TOUR champion. Rory won the 1st TOUR Championship with starting strokes in 2019.
Key stats used for the 2023 TOUR Championship
Hovland was my 6th outright winner on the PGA Tour in 2022-23. That plus a Matthew Fitzpatrick Top-10 finish I added via Twitter earned me +22.88 units (u) at the BMW. I'm still getting crushed this season but my betting balance is up to -25.68u.
TOUR Championship 2023 Best Bets
For placement bets, shop at sportsbooks that pay in full instead of applying “dead heat rules”. My strategy for the TOUR Championship is to earn 20u if one of my guys wins. Otherwise, I’m betting placements to profit 1u plus the outright wager lost.
Viktor Hovland
I said it last week and will say it again here: "Hovland has been the best player on Tour this season that hasn't won a major." He enters the TOUR Championship two strokes behind Scheffler at -8.
Hovland has finished in the top-20 for every major including a T7 at the Masters and T2 at the 2023 PGA Championship. Hovland won the Memorial Tournament in June, which is played at a crossover course to East Lake.
Also, Hovland is 3rd in my stats-based model over the last 36 rounds. Hovland leads this field in both Par 4 EFF: 450-500 yards and PROX: 175-200 yards. There are five Par 4s within that distance at East Lake.
Viktor Hovland lines up his shot on the 7th hole during the 3rd round of the 2021 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Again, Scheffler has a 2-stroke lead over Hovland entering the TOUR Championship. Scheffler is averaging -2.3 SG: Putting over his last five starts. Hovland is averaging +2.6 SG: Putting. So that's nearly a 5-stroke swing right there.
East Lake is a driver-heavy course with a 83.5% driver usage in 2022, according to Ron Klos. Hovland has gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) in 18 of his last 19 events including +4.7 SG: OTT at last week's BMW Championship.
Hovland is one of the best ball strikers in the world and has been hot with the putter. Since Hovland is the best player on Tour this season without a major, it's only fitting for him to win the FedExCup.
BET 1u on Viktor Hovland as outright winner with starting strokes (+500) at DraftKings
Russell Henley
DraftKings Sportsbook also offers a TOUR Championship betting market for the best 72-hole score. Aka "Outright Winner (Without Starting Strokes)".
Henley is one of "my guys". He cashed at 45-to-1 ticket for me earlier this season by winning the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in October 2022.
More importantly, Henley plays well at Donald Ross courses. Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club, which hosts the Wyndham Championship. Henley has finished T9 or better in four straight Wyndham Championships including a T2 earlier this month.
At Sedgefield earlier this month, Henley was +9.6 SG: Putting. Henley’s struggles with the flat-stick have been well-reported. But, Bermuda is by far Henley’s best putting surface.
Russell Henley plays his shot from the 2nd tee during the 2nd round of the 2017 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
This is a home-game for Henley who is a Georgia native and familiar with Bermuda greens. Henley finished 3rd in his last TOUR Championship appearance, in 2017, before the starting strokes style.
Furthermore, in my TOUR Championship power rankings, Henley is 3rd behind Rory and Scheffler. Henley ranks 6th in my stats-based model over the last 36 rounds and 4th over the last 24 rounds.
The driving accuracy at East Lake is roughly 7% worse than the PGA Tour average. He has the best driving accuracy this season. Henley is 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 36 rounds as well.
Finally, Henley enters the TOUR Championship in great form. He finished T8 at last week’s BMW Championship, T6 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude’s Championship, and T2 at the Wyndham.
Bet 0.5u on Russell Henley as the outright winner without starting strokes (+3500) at DraftKings
Xander Schauffele
Schauffele enters the TOUR Championship tied for 11th with a -3, two strokes behind 5th-place Lucas Glover. Xander is +280 at DraftKings to finish in the TOP-5 (INCLUDES STARTING STROKES).
He leads this field in total SG at East Lake. Schauffele has finished in the top-five in four straight TOUR Championships and won it in 2017 before the starting strokes format.
Xander Schauffele lines up a putt on the 18th green during the final round of the 2022 TOUR Championship at East Lake. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Xander is one of the most consistent golfers on Tour. Schauffele has ten top-10 finishes this season including a T10 at the Masters, T2 at the Wells Fargo Championship, and T8 at last week's BMW.
Finally, Xander has been lights out with the putter recently. East Lake Golf Club has fast and firm greens. Schauffele is 2nd in this field for SG: Putting on fast greens over the last 24 rounds.
Bet 1u on Xander Schauffele Top-5 with starting strokes (+280) at DraftKings