Total Play As Sub-.500 Squads Play In New York

Marlins vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

Marlins vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

Over the course of this baseball season, I've talked quite a bit about the playoffs and division races. Although it is just June 11th, and there is still plenty of time, I typically use this conversation to express how effective, or ineffective, a team has been this season. While there are other ways, the ultimate goal of every team has to be to try and punch their ticket into the playoffs so they can have a chance at hoisting the World Series. Although neither of these teams playing tonight will participate in the playoffs this season, there still is some intrigue thanks to sports betting as the Marlins take on the Mets in a three-game series starting tonight. 

The Miami Marlins made the playoffs last season. If you want to talk about how drastically different everything can be for a team from one calendar year to the next, they are the poster child. The Marlins were able to get virtually everything to go correctly for them last season. This season they can get nothing going their way. They already have traded away their best hitter, and I'd be shocked if other guys weren't on the move for them at some point soon. The team has struggled in just about every category. Frankly, I think they just overperformed last year and this year is closer to the reality of this club. I also don't know that the franchise actually wants to be a successful franchise, but that's a different conversation. One of the guys that I assume will be traded by the deadline is today's starter, Jesus Luzardo. When Luzardo came over via trade from the Athletics, the thought was that he could be a 2nd starter behind Sandy Alcantara. Unfortunately for both, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Luzardo has a 2-5 record with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The WHIP is actually fairly productive, and makes me think he is pitching better than the ERA would indicate. However, when you actually look at the game log, you have to be at least a bit concerned. He has only made 10 starts, but has allowed seven or more hits in four of those games. After posting 14 straight scoreless innings in May, he allowed three earned over six innings in his final May start before allowing nine earned runs over 4.1 innings in his first June outing. Mets hitters are hitting .245 against him with only Jeff McNeil and maybe Brandon Nimmo having sustained success against him. 

The Mets had the highest payroll in baseball last season when Opening Day rolled around. Their rotation lost Jacob deGrom but replaced him with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. The team had Tommy Pham, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor. Primed for success, the squad never found it. Collectively they struggled to hit. The pitching staff had injuries and other issues, and eventually they traded away multiple players in hopes of at least saving a bit of money. This season hasn't been much better for them despite thoughts that they could potentially turn it around. They are hitting .242 as a club, but have only gotten 280 runs for the season. Their pitching staff is comprised of mostly veteran arms that have seen a lot of teams. Unsurprisingly, they have a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. One guy who has been with the club and is still fairly young is Tylor Megill and he goes tonight for the Mets. This will be his fifth start of the year and he has a 1-2 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Like Luzardo, he is coming off of his worst start of the season, going five innings and allowing four earned runs to the Nationals. He's only allowed seven earned runs all year, so over half have come from the one game. The Marlins hitters haven't seen him very often but they are 8-for-30 against Megill and half of their hits have gone for extra bases. 

This is a game that is closer to a coinflip than the book's line would suggest. Right now the Marlins are +124 and the Mets are -148 to win the game. To be honest, I feel like the Marlins have a bit of value, because they probably do have the better pitcher. I think the best way to play this game is to take the over 7.5 in this one at -108. I expect both pitchers to rebound from their poor starts, but not be unhittable. I'll back the over for this game. 

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