Total Play In Red Sox Vs Astros

Red Sox vs. Astros, 8:10 ET

I once again went 1-1 in official plays. In the game with the Mariners, I did mention that they shouldn't be that big of underdogs against their division rival and were worthy of a sprinkle on the moneyline. That makes two straight days that I go 1-1 and had a sprinkle on the moneyline of the correct team. I bring that up mostly to show that we are still making progress even with these 1-1 days. Tonight we look to take a win home in the Red Sox vs. Astros.

The Red Sox are playing some very good baseball right now. Or, maybe they just need to play the Yankees every day for the rest of the year. They are coming off of a sweep of the Yanks in New York. The first two games were them being dominant. The third game was more of a back-and-forth battle, but Justin Turner from the Red Sox had a great game and delivered for them. The offense of Boston is clicking right now and has been very solid this season, surprisingly solid. James Paxton takes the hill for Boston tonight, and he has a 3.34 ERA for the season. He's been worse on the road than at home this season, but he has been good in his night starts. Over his last seven starts on the road, he had only one bad road start. He allowed six earned runs to the Cubs over three innings in the only poor start. The other six starts he didn't allow more than three earned runs and he has four quality starts in that span. So, all things considered, he really hasn't been terrible on the road, but there are more hiccups on the road than at home. There are 82 at-bats from Astros hitters against Paxton, but only four hitters have faced him. Jose Altuve is the one with the most success, but Alex Bregman is close behind.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - JUNE 11: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros bats during the eighth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on June 11, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

The Astros have been good this season as they chase down the Rangers in their division. The issue is that they now also must beat the Mariners away from the chase as well. To that end, they were swept by Seattle over the last three days. Seattle is one of the hottest teams in baseball so maybe it was just a matter of them being in front of a buzzsaw. They probably shouldn't be too worried as they are still above .500 in the second half and are still in control of their own destiny as they currently own the second Wild Card. They have Cristian Javier taking the ball for him and it would be great if he could get back on track for the Astros. Javier hasn't been great this year but he is really talented and was a strong contributor last season in the World Series run. He has just three quality starts over the past three months (12 starts). He's had some very bad starts, but perhaps being at home will make a difference. He has a 3.19 home ERA and has only had one home start over his last seven outings. Javier has held the Red Sox to just a .164 average against him in fairly limited exposure.

I like the way that Boston is playing right now, but I don't like that they are traveling for this game and coming off of one of the more emotional series that they have all season. I do think that both teams will allow runs in this game as Javier hasn't been dominant and we see Paxton is good but allowing runs. I'm going to take the over 9 in this game.

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