Total Play For ALCS Game 3

Astros vs. Rangers, 8:03 ET

Boy, was I wrong. Well, maybe not wrong, just half wrong. Yesterday, I thought the Diamondbacks would take the game against the Phillies. They didn't even come close as they were blanked in the game. The good news is they were plus money and I only played a half unit on them winning. The other half was on the over and the Phillies accommodated that with 10 runs on their own. Hat tip to them. Now we shift over to the American League Championship Series as the Astros take on the Rangers.

The Astros had home-field advantage and lost both of those games. Now they head on the road to try and beat the Rangers, a team that has yet to lose in the playoffs this year. To make matters worse, the Astros haven't even had the lead in the series after 18 innings. In Game 1, they lost 2-0 but had some opportunities. In Game 2, they ended up losing 5-4 but allowed four runs in the first inning and couldn't overcome it. I suppose there is something to be said for being competitive in the games, but ultimately that won't get them to where they need to go. Now they turn to Cristian Javier, a guy that was very solid for them last postseason and has pitched well in his last two outings. He only has made one start this postseason as he allowed one hit in five innings and no earned runs against the Twins. Combine that with his last regular season start and he has held teams scoreless in the last 11 innings of work. He faced the Rangers once this season and it was a disaster - he went 4.1 innings and allowed eight earned runs but somehow the Astros still won the game 12-11. No one on the Rangers is all that impressive against Javier overall, but that game was a bad one.

Apr 23, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier (53) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers are hotter than anyone in baseball, even the Phillies. Okay, maybe not the Phillies, but as mentioned, they are undefeated to this point in the playoffs. The Rangers have done a great job of winning games with the long ball and playing the small ball game. I see them running the bases well, fielding the ball effectively, and in general not having many mistakes. Their bullpen has been better than expected and their starters have been dominant. Returning home for just their second home game of the playoffs, they get another shot in the arm as they have Max Scherzer returning from the injured list to make a start. We know that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is on, but I have some reservations on just how good he will be tonight. Scherzer last pitched about a month ago, but with a future Hall-of-Famer, you have to let him go when you have the opportunity. He faced the Astros twice this season, once with the Mets and once with the Rangers. The Mets performance was great, going eight innings and one earned run. The Rangers outing was much worse, he lasted just three innings and allowed seven earned runs.

You don't find too many totals posted at 9 in the MLB playoffs, but we have one today, and I'm not sure that it is high enough. I don't think either pitcher will have the edge tonight and the ball can certainly fly in Arlington. I would be a bit surprised if the Rangers don't win this game, but I'm going to play the over and hope that Scherzer is rusty and Javier falls apart.

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