Total Look For Brewers And Angels

Brewers vs. Angels, 8:38 ET

I had a conversation with a reader not too long ago, and the conversation centered around coin flip games. He was asking why it seems like I take a lot of games that hover around the -110 line for both sides on the moneyline. I didn't have a single great answer for him, but here are a few reasons I shared. In my mind, the book doesn't think there is a clear edge from one pitcher to the other. Another reason I like them is because if you play too many -160 or so moneyline games, you just make winning harder on yourself. If you lose a -200 game for example, you need to win two +100 in order to recover from it. I'm back at a game that is essentially a coinflip here, but we should have the edge as we play a game between the Brewers and Angels. 

The Milwaukee Brewers are the cream of the NL Central crop, but that really hasn't changed over the past couple of years. This season is a bit of a revelation as they are playing very good baseball on both offense and from a pitching perspective. Their team has a .254 batting average which is good for fourth in the Majors. They are also seventh in runs this season with 344 on the year. What is most encouraging about this team is their runs aren't solely from homers or anything like that. They are hitting well and finding ways to manufacture runs. On the season they only have 74 homers which is middle of the pack, despite them scoring so many runs this year. The pitching staff has certainly held their own this season as well with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. One of their newest additions to the team is Carlos Rodriguez. A 22-year-old right-hander, he's only made one appearance in his career, going 3.2 innings and allowing two earned runs. That was a home start, and things can get a bit more complex on the road for many starters. However, there are also a lot of times that we see that rookies do well on the road as opposed to at home. It will take a little while to see what Rodriguez has in the tank, but you should probably expect that he ends up only throwing fewer than five innings in this game. 

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 02: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers dives back to first base against the Miami Marlins at American Family Field on October 02, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The Angels are not the cream of the AL West, and in fact they are probably the crap of the crop (I'm not sure that is a saying, but let's go with it). For years the Angels have had optimism squashed rather quickly either due to poor starts or injuries. Either way, the team hasn't performed well and at this point, it probably makes more sense for them to try and trade away everything they can and try to make a multi-year rebuild take place. The season really can't be blamed on the hitters at this point. They are hitting .240, but it doesn't really translate to runs on the scoreboard. For the season, they still don't have 300 runs, which puts them in the unfortunate company of about 12 teams, but they are 21st overall. The pitching staff has been the biggest problem as the club has a 4.85 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. They are also allowing opponents to hit .247 against them. It is arguable that they have their best starter going tonight in Jose Soriano. We were able to get a win off of his arm in his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, and this was his second consecutive quality start. He hasn't made a ton of home starts this season, but he does have a rather high ERA at home. In six starts, he has allowed four or more earned runs three of them. His best home start came earlier this month as he went six innings and allowed just one earned run. He has only faced one Brewers hitter and the at-bat resulted in a walk.

While Soriano is the better pitcher, Rodriguez could turn in a nice start. If you want to go with the known entity, I think you certainly need to take Soriano. It is possible he is figuring things out and will be able to lead the Angels to victory. That is where I would lean for the game, however, I think we can probably see that both pitchers will allow some runs in this game. I'm going to take the over 8.5 in this one. I think both squads should be able to get some runs off of the starter. Neither bullpen is great (the Brewers is better) so we can probably expect them to allow a couple runs as well. Back the over. 

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