Let's Compare The Top 25 Coaches Poll To Vegas Odds For 2025 College Football National Champion

With all the new things happening in college football this year — conference realignment, the transfer portal, an expanded playoff system, and NIL, for example — it's good to see an old friend. Of course, I'm talking about the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll from USA TODAY released Monday, August 5. 

Every Monday after Week 1 games at the beginning of September until the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship, head coaches from randomly selected NCAA FBS schools vote for the top 25 teams in the country. Yet, analyzing teams through the coaches' poll is an outdated method. 

As a degenerate sports bettor, my preferred way of judging teams is by betting odds. OutKick contributor, and fellow football gambler, "Kelly In Vegas" knows what I'm talking about. Luckily, the Kelly & Murray Show made it nice and easy for us by posting the top 25 teams in college football along with their title odds on X (formerly known as "Twitter"). 

Coming into this exercise, I assumed I'd agree with everything Vegas thought and knock the coaches. Typically, I fade the rankings when handicapping college football and basketball because they are misleading. But, to my surprise, I agree with the coaches more than the sportsbooks. That could mean bad news for me in college football this season. 

2025 College Football Playoff National Championship odds for the top 25 

Overrated

Michigan Wolverines

I gave out No. 8 Michigan to win the 2024 CFP National Championship at +900 last year because of its returning experience. According to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, the Wolverines were fifth in returning production in 2023. 

They are 128th out of 134 FBS programs and have just seven returning starters. Gone are former QB J.J. McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, three of Michigan’s top-four receivers from last year’s team, and its entire offensive line.

Former Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrates beating the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Most importantly, Jim Harbaugh, who rebuilt the football program, went to the NFL. I’m a big "Harbaugh guy" and sold all of my stock in the Wolverines without him. Per 247sports.com, Michigan ranked 17th in recruiting ranks in 2023 and 16th this year, and 58th in the transfer portal rankings. This is a direct result of Harbaugh leaving.

According to Phil Steele, the Wolverines have the 15th-toughest schedule in the nation. Of course, they meet No. 2 Ohio State in The Game in their regular-season finale. Michigan scheduled No. 4 Texas in non-conference play in Week 2. Plus, the Wolverines play Big 10 newcomers No. 3 Oregon and No. 23 USC.

Michigan might begin ranked eighth in the coaches poll, but I think it finishes outside the top-25 and won’t sniff a CFP berth. If you’re into regular-season win totals, which I’m not because I prefer betting futures with fat payouts, I recommend betting the Wolverines UNDER 9 wins (-135) at DraftKings.

Oklahoma Sooners

While I agree with the coaches poll, Oklahoma goes to the SEC this year and has the 17th-toughest schedule, per Steele, and still plays in the annual Red River Shootout against Texas. The Sooners visit No. 6 Ole Miss, who will be coming off of a bye, wrap their regular season up in Death Valley vs. No. 12 LSU, and host No. 5 Alabama the week before.

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables speaking at 2024 SEC Media Day. (Brett Patzke-USA TODAY Sports)

That said, Oklahoma won 10 games under third-year head coach Brett Venables last season. Venables is a defensive-minded coach and Steele says the Sooners have the second-best linebacker room and second-best secondary in 2024. Unfortunately, because of Oklahoma’s grueling schedule, I agree with Vegas’s odds for its title hopes.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

This is tough because I’m betting the Cowboys to win the Big XII at +800. But, I don’t think Oklahoma State can win the national championship because it will most likely get smoked by an SEC team in the CFP. The Cowboys have the 54th-toughest in the country, per Steele. Their toughest games are No. 17 Kansas State on the road and Big XII newcomer No. 13 Utah at home.

Oklahoma State Cowboys RB Ollie Gordon talks to QB Alan Bowman during a game vs. the Texas A&M Aggies. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Oklahoma State has 19 returning starters, including senior QB Alan Bowman, his two leading receivers, and First-Team All-Big XII RB Ollie Gordon. Since 2014, Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has won 10+ games five times and the Big XII is easier with Texas and Oklahoma going to the SEC.

By definition, Oklahoma State is "overrated" because its title odds are much worse than its ranking in the coaches poll. However, I’m on the Cowboys winning the Big XII, which is one of the "Power 4" conferences. Do with that what you will.

Underrated

LSU Tigers

Listen, I’m a Brian Kelly defender. He gets the most out of Notre Dame’s talent year in, and year out, and I can see him winning a national championship in Baton Rouge. Especially now that Saban has retired. 

Nonetheless, LSU lost its Heisman-winning quarterback, and leading rusher, Jayden Daniels to the Washington Commanders. Tigers WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas were first-round picks in the 2024 NFL draft. Also, gone are LSU’s top-two tacklers and leader in sacks from last year’s squad. 

Former LSU Tigers QB Jayden Daniels and head coach Brian Kelly post with the Heisman Trophy. (Todd Van Emst/Heisman Trust/Pool-USA TODAY Sports)

So, while the SuperBook says they are underrated in the coach’s poll, I’d argue the Tigers are overrated. They meet USC in Las Vegas in Week 1 and play SEC games against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. This is another team where I side with the coaches over Vegas.

Texas A&M Aggies

SuperBook gives the Aggies the 10th-best odds of winning the CFP title and the coaches have them 20th in the preseason rankings. Hence, the oddsmakers must think new head coach Mike Elko is an upgrade over Jimbo Fisher, and it’s hard to disagree. Fisher recruited at a high level but couldn’t coach up his talent.

Elko retained 18 starters from last year’s team, several of whom were highly recruited. On top of the returning starters, Texas A&M ranks fourth in the 2024 transfer portal rankings at 247sports.com. Nowadays, the transfer portal is just as, or even more, important than recruiting.

Texas A&M Aggies QB Conner Weigman drops back to pass vs. the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. (Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports)

Texas A&M’s odds suggest its relatively easy schedule gives them a puncher’s chance of clinching a CFP berth. The Aggies play No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 11 Missouri, LSU, and Texas. Otherwise, they have the 33rd-toughest schedule, per Steele, which ain’t too bad considering Texas A&M plays in the SEC.

Nonetheless, I only give 5-7 teams a chance at winning the national championship, and the Aggies aren’t one of them.

Kansas Jayhawks

Vegas gives Kansas +4000 odds to winning the title because of its soft schedule. The Jayhawks only face one ranked team: Kansas State. They went 9-4 last year and 13 starters return in 2024. This includes QB Jalon Daniels, who was 3-0 last year before getting hurt for the season, his three most productive running backs, and three most productive wideouts. 

However, Kansas had 10 returning starters in 2023 and were never in the national championship mix. Frankly, I disagree with the SuperBook and coaches here. I’ll lean toward Vegas here, but who the f*ck would bet the Jayhawks at +4000?

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