Top-10 ERA Pitchers Will Do What They've Been Doing

Cubs vs. Royals, 7:10 ET

I'm kind of thankful that the Olympics are coming up because we get a variety of sports to bet on. Don't get me wrong, I love baseball and I love betting on baseball, but I also enjoy the variety that comes with the Olympics. We've almost reached August as well so we are close to the start of college and professional football seasons. All of this is to say that when you hear about the "Dog Days of Summer" for a baseball franchise, it can be true about betting as well. Tonight we are treated to a unique experience as we have two of the best pitchers in terms of ERA as the Cubs take on the Royals.

The Cubs like to toy with people's emotions. They started the season looking like they were going to be one of the better teams in the sport. There was a lot of hype around them because last year they almost made the playoffs and they brought in a new manager. Them not being great was one of the few correct calls that I've had about this season as I expected them to regress this season since they made no real improvements. At the All-Star Break they provided some hope because they were able to sweep the Orioles and go 8-3 in the last 11 games before the break. They've since followed that up by going 2-4 after play has resumed. How has the offense done? They've scored a total of nine runs in the six games, which I have to assume is the lowest in the sport. (Fun fact, the White Sox and Cubs as of the time of writing this article have scored a combined 20 runs in 13 games since the All-Star Break.) The good news for them today is that Shota Imanaga is taking the hill. Imanaga has been the one mostly consistent thing in the Cubs roster. Imagana is 8-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has allowed 33 earned runs on the season over 18 starts, and 10 of them came in one start. 17 of the runs have come in two starts. So, for 16 starts he has been virtually unhittable, and for the other two he was terrible. He's put forward four consecutive quality starts (including one after the break) after that 10 run disaster. He hasn't faced the Royals, so he should have a nice edge to start this game. 

May 1, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) pitches against the New York Mets during the second inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Royals are still chasing the Guardians as they have been for the majority of the season. They are the current owners of the final spot in the Wild Card, so if the season ended today they would be in the playoffs. After sweeping the White Sox to resume play after the All-Star Break, they lost two of three to the Diamondbacks. The Royals have played well virtually all season, and they continue to be one of the better teams in baseball. Their .250 batting average and they score about 4.75 runs per game. What I like about them is they seem to have a very good balance of hitters who can hit for power and those who hit for average. It isn't just the offense, the Royals pitching staff has done a great job as well and are sporting a 3.76 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. Surprisingly, teams are hitting .243 against them this season, which isn't great. They do get their best pitcher, Seth Lugo, going in this one. Lugo is at 12-4 with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. This probably doesn't need to be said to most casual fans, but this is the best season of Lugo's career, but most of his experience has actually been out of the bullpen, not the rotation. Lugo was great out of the All-Star Break and threw a complete game, allowing just three hits and one earned run. Cubs hitters haven't shown much against Lugo in the past, hitting just 6-for-36 against him. 

This game has a clear play for me, and if it is a loss, it will be a loss. I'm going to play the under through five innings. If I can find a reasonably priced 4.5, I'll take it, but most places are going to give you a 3.5 for the first five innings. I like both of them, but obviously one is significantly safer than the other. Lugo has pitched very well this season, and so has Imanaga. The Cubs haven't done much offensively lately, so I feel pretty confident in taking the first five under. 

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