Too Many Points For Toledo To Cover Against Ball State

Ball State vs. Toledo, 8:00 ET

It hasn't been the cleanest of starts for me in MACtion. However, it is pretty exciting to see that we get it back on a regular basis. With it being the only conference with action on the evening, it is nice for us to get a game to watch, and I like one play in particular in this one. Ball State and Toledo aren't going to be must-watch television, but it is still a football game and some football is better than no football.

Ball State is coming into the game with a record of just 5-4 on the season. However, they also have won four of their last five games and are playing much better football overall. Even the one loss they had to Eastern Michigan recently was just a one-possession loss. They aren't a super high-scoring team, but their defense seems to do a good enough job of stopping their opponent and they've held opponents to under 30 points in their last four games. Their best play is turning around and handing the ball to Carson Steele. On the year, the running back has amassed 1,082 yards and nine touchdowns. It is a fairly balanced offense though as their quarterback has thrown the ball 366 times on the season as well.

Toledo comes into the game at 6-3 and just like Ball State, they have won four of their last five games. They did beat Eastern Michigan last week, but it was a close game as well. One area that I do think Toledo has an edge in is their offense. It isn't like they have a juggernaut of an offense, but their offensive averages match up well with what the Ball State defense is allowing for the year. If Toledo gets what they want, they should score about 30 points. They also don't allow a ton of passing yards per game. There is almost no question that Toledo is the better team, but will they cover?

In my estimation, they won't be covering tonight. Ball State getting 11 points is too many for me to pass up. Ball State is playing better lately. I also think the over hits in this one. Ball State can put up some points on Toledo's defense and the Toledo offense should get just about its average offensive output. I feel more confident about Ball State covering, but I'd also sprinkle over 50.5.

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