Toledo Will Put Up A Fight At Illinois In Week 1
Both the Toledo Rockets and Illinois Fighting Illini are on the come up entering their Week 1 game at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. Toledo won last season's Mid-American Conference (MAC) titles. The Fighting Illini have improved by three wins in each of coach Bret Bielema's first three years in Champaign and finished 8-5 in 2022.
The Rockets are the preseason favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to win back-to-back MAC titles (+160). Toledo's win total is set at 9 with juice on the Over (-120/+100). Illinois has a 6.5-win total with an expensive Over as well (-125/+105). However, the Fighting Illini are a mid-tier price to win the Big Ten at +3000 odds.
Toledo at Illinois Week 1 (DraftKings)
Toledo Rockets vs. Illinois Fighting Illini betting odds for Week 1 at DraftKings as of Thursday, August 31st.
The Rockets have a bunch of returning experience while Illinois was gutted this offseason. College football analyst Phil Steele has a table in his 2023 season preview titled “All-Conference Points”.
Steele awards or deducts various points from a team based on returning and exiting All-Americans and All-Conference players. Illinois’s -30 “All-Conference Points” ranks 110th nationally and 12th in the Big Ten. Toledo’s +29 is 2nd in the MAC and 10th in the country.
Illinois has 12 returning starters in contrast to Toledo’s 16 returning starters. Former Fighting Illini QB Tommy DeVito went to the NFL this offseason. As did former Illinois RB, and 2nd-leading rusher in the 2022 Big Ten, Chase Brown.
Former Illinois QB Tommy DeVito hands the ball off to former RB Chase Brown vs. the Wyoming Cowboys at Memorial in Champaign. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Rockets QB Dequan Finn had the 3rd-best QB Rating in the MAC last season and returns for his 5th season. Also returning to Toledo are its six leading rushers from 2022 and the top two WRs. This is an issue for Illinois considering former CB Devon Witherspoon was taken in the top-10 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Furthermore, Steele notes that the Fighting Illini were on the right side of variance in a couple of departments last year, which may regress. They benefitted from a +15 turnover margin last season.
ILLINOIS HANDS BRET BIELEMA LUCRATIVE EXTENSION
Plus, Illinois played “bend but don’t break defense” last year. The Fighting Illini gave up 21.4 yards per point (YPP), per Steele. Since 1990, teams that allowed at least 21.35 YPP had a worse or the same record 83.6% of the time.
Combining these two regression metrics with the loss of production equals a probable step-back for Illinois this year. The Rockets on the other hand are Steele's 3rd-best "Non-Power 5 Team" entering 2023.
Also, Toledo is taking sharp action. The Rockets opened as +10 underdogs earlier this summer but is +8.5 at Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is considered the sharpest shop in town and DraftKings should eventually lower its number.
The Toledo Rockers celebrating with the MAC Championship trophy after beating Ohio University at Ford Field in Detroit. (Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, fellow MAC team, the Ohio Bobcats, didn’t put back injured QB Kurtis Rourke in their Week 0 loss at San Diego State even though Rourke insisted he was healthy enough to return.
Ohio didn’t want to risk serious injury to Rourke because the Bobcats are thinking “MAC title or bust.” That said, Toledo has already been there and done that.
If the Rockets can upset the Fighting Illini Saturday they could be in the mix for a New Year’s Day bowl appearance. This is a big accomplishment for any Group of 5 football program.