Tired Teams Will Lead To No Defense Played

Wings vs. Aces, 3:30 ET

When I first started doing these WNBA posts, I felt like I was just trying to break into the Caitlin Clark hype. Some of me was thinking that the only way people would read anything is if it involved the Fever. I think the first three posts or something all had her at least involved in the game even if they weren't all official plays on her. As the season has gone on, I've expanded a bit with the games we played. It has been a very profitable season. Recently, I hit a 14:1 parlay, then I missed another one by a couple of rebounds from an injured player. Friday, I had one that missed by two legs, but a combined two points and two rebounds. Just trying to say that I've done well lately and am looking to run it with the Wings and Aces today.

We just recently took a game with the Wings and coasted to an easy victory. Dallas has struggled this season and the biggest issue has been their defense. They are playing slightly better basketball lately despite their record. They are 2-3 over their past five games, but they continue to allow opponents to score a ridiculous amount of points. If you zoom out of the last five games, you see that the team went 1-11 in their 12 games during June, and lost 14 of 15 games overall. In those 14 losses, they allowed at least 81 points to their opponent in every game. In fact, there has only been two games this season where their opponent has scored fewer than 80 points. They have allowed 90 points in five of their past seven games. They did face the Aces earlier in the season and they lost 95-81, once again giving up a ton of points to their opponent. Even more concerning for this particular game is that this is the fourth game in seven days for the team. This will also be the third city in that stretch. They went from Seattle on the 1st, to Dallas on the 3rd where they played two games, and now are playing in Las Vegas on the 7th. That is a lot of basketball for them in a short stretch, and a lot of travel as well. 

May 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale (24) reacts after scoring during the fourth quarter against the Chicago Sky at College Park Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA needs to be a bit concerned because the Aces are starting to look like the dominant team they have been for the past three years. The concern might have been a bit overblown anyway, but they did look unsteady to say the least. They started the season 4-1, then dropped four of six games and sat at 6-6 before running off six straight wins. They did lose their most recent game, a back-to-back with travel against the Sparks. That's probably the only reason that they lost the game, but it also went to overtime so there is some concern about how tired this team will be. This is the third game in four days for the Aces, and they went from Las Vegas to Los Angeles, back to Las Vegas for the game. One of the reasons that the Aces turned around their season is that Kelsey Plum has stepped up lately and been more consistent offensively. A'Ja Wilson is going to do her thing and be a dominant force, but Plum and Jackie Young taking some of the pressure off of her has helped make the team more balanced and effective. 

Normally, I'd think that the Aces could absolutely destroy the Wings and would probably say to take them with any spread under -10. However, with this game, the fatigue factor has to be included. Where they will struggle is defense, and that has been a problem for the team this entire season, so the best play in this one is to take the over. We know the Wings are going to allow a bunch of points, and I think the Aces will probably struggle to stop the Wings. I am going to play the over in this game. I do think both team totals go over, but I'm not going to go crazy, I think the game over is the best way to play this. 

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