Three NBA Monday Winners To Start Your Week Off Right
The NBA is up to its usual "load management" BS. But, luckily for me, the teams I've backed have actually played the guys they are paying millions to per year. Regardless, I'm expecting that to change sometime soon. Hopefully, all the players suit up for my ...
NBA Monday Money-Making Wagers
Brooklyn Nets (-120) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET tip-off
Since last season, the Hornets are 5-22 straight up (SU) with a -10.3 scoring margin and 8-19 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs vs. non-division opponents. Despite an 0-2 SU record, the Nets are 2-0 ATS in their 1st two games this season.
Brooklyn is missing two starters, PF Cameron Johnson and C Nic Claxton, but their replacements add another dynamic. Backup Nets forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale can both defend positions 1-4 and space the floor with their 3-point shooting.
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Also, after being acquired in the Kyrie Irving trade, Brooklyn combo guard Spencer Dinwiddie led the team in adjusted on/off rating last season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Charlotte has one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA so Dinwiddie will cook Monday.
Nets SG Cam Thomas shoots the ball over the Cleveland Cavaliers wing Caris LeVert at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Watch out for this kid, Nets SG Cam Thomas. He is an automatic bucket off of the bench. Thomas is averaging 33.0 points with a 66.3% eFG% in the 1st two games of the season. Due to injuries, Thomas is in Brooklyn's starting 5. In seven games as a starter, Thomas is averaging 32.6 points per game.
Finally, the Nets have the better roster and the best player on the floor in wing Mikal Bridges. The Nets have those aforementioned long, 3-point shooting defensive forwards that have been on winning teams.
My prediction: Nets 116, Hornets 110
Bet 1.2u on the Nets (-120) at the Hornets in NBA Monday (1 unit = $10).
Minnesota Timberwolves (-140) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
I’ll come clean about my anti-Atlanta bias up front. I don’t like Hawks PG Trae Young’s game and it’s stupid Atlanta’s organization is building around Trae. Also, Minnesota has a low-key deep roster.
The T-Wolves have three good bigs that bring something different to the table such as Naz Reid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert. KAT is the best shooting big man in the NBA. Reid can space the floor and is a versatile scorer. Gobert is a 3-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Plus, Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards is certainly the best player on the floor. Minnesota beat Atlanta in both meetings last season. The Timberwolves were without Edwards in the 2nd game while the Hawks were at full strength.
Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards shoots an uncontested 3-pointer vs. the Miami Heat at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
This is the 2nd of B2B for Atlanta who played the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday. The T-Wolves beat a team playing the 2nd of a B2B Saturday, a game I cashed on. They pulled away late from a Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat 106-90 Saturday.
Since 2022, Minnesota is 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS with a rest edge over its opponent. The T-Wolves are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with a +9.4 spread differential as a ‘dog with a rest edge since last season. Plus, the Hawks are 6-14 SU and 8-12 ATS with a rest disadvantage over that span.
My prediction: Timberwolves 118, Hawks 113
Bet 1.4u on the Timberwolves (-140) at the Hawks in NBA Monday (1 unit = $10).
Detroit Pistons (+6, +190 moneyline) at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
OKC played 13 back-to-backs last season. Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) only suited up for five of those games and one that he missed was against Detroit. The Thunder beat the Pistons 107-106 but failed to cover as -9.5 favorites.
Oklahoma City can’t use not having SGA as an excuse. Detroit was missing sharpshooter Bojan Bogdanović, PG Cade Cunningham, and C Isaiah Stewart. Bogdanović is out with an injury but Cade and Beef Stew.
I know SGA averaged 31.4 points last season but Cunningham cancels him out. Gilgeous-Alexander needs to outplay Cunningham because the Pistons have the better roster because Detroit’s two bigs are a handful on the glass.
Pistons C Jalen Duren daps up PG Cade Cunningham after scoring vs. the Chicago Bulls at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. (Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports)
Pistons rookie forward Ausar Thompson, C Jalen Duren, and Stewart are grabbing a combined 36.0 rebounds per game. Detroit leads the NBA in offensive rebounding rate through its 1st three games.
Furthermore, the Thunder aren’t a good shooting team but attack the basket relentlessly. They were 24th last season in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) but led the NBA in drives per game.
But, the Pistons are athletic enough to stay in front of OKC’s ball handlers. Detroit’s athleticism is why the Pistons have the 2nd-best wide-open 3-point attempt rate allowed. You cannot get clean looks from 3-point land without dribble penetration.
Lastly, the Thunder are a popular team among NBA hipsters while the Pistons had one of the lowest regular-season win totals entering 2023-24. The idea of fading a popular OKC team sounds good to me.
My prediction: Pistons 114, Thunder 111
Bet 1.1u on Pistons +6 and 0.25u on Detroit's +190 moneyline vs. Thunder (1 unit = $10).