Three NBA Locks For Sunday Include A Side, Prop And Total
I've diversified my gambling portfolio in the NBA Sunday in an effort to shake things up after getting stomped Saturday. My three looks include the total in Cavaliers-Hornets, a side in the Trail Blazers-Pelicans and player prop in Knicks-Lakers.
BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and "tanking" eras. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.
Cleveland Cavaliers (42-27) at Charlotte Hornets (22-47), 5 p.m. ET
UNDER 220 (-110) down to 219 in Cavaliers-Hornets is the look because of all the Under-friendly betting trends in this matchup and Cleveland's injury report.
Charlotte lost last night (Saturday) 119-111 at home to the Jazz, eking Over their 229-point total. On the 2nd of a back-to-back, the Hornets are 3-7 Over/Under (O/U) with a -9.7 O/U margin.
The Cavaliers are 8-12 O/U as road favorites (-4.3 O/U margin) and the Hornets are 9-14 O/U as home underdogs (-3.7 O/U margin).
Cavs' C Jarrett Allen high-fives PG Darius Garland during a game vs. the Washington Wizards on February 6, 2023 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)
Cavs big Jarrett Allen is "doubtful" to play and PG Darius Garland is "questionable". According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Cleveland is +3.9 in adjusted offensive efficiency when Garland is on the floor and +3.2 when Allen is in the game.
Charlotte's offense has fallen off a cliff since LaMelo Ball went out with a season-injury ending. Per CTG, the Hornets are -5.9 in adjusted offensive efficiency when Ball is off the floor.
But, Charlotte's adjusted defensively is +5.4 better when Ball is out of the game. The Hornets are 6th in defensive rating in the NBA over their last five games, which is how long Ball has been out for.
The Cavaliers are 3rd in defensive rating and both teams are playing a slow tempo over that span. Cleveland is 28th in pace over the last five games and Charlotte is 21st.
Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell gets trapped with the ball vs. the Hornets at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Lauren Leigh Bacho/NBAE via Getty Images)
Per VSIN, roughly 75% of the action is on the Over. Most likely due to both teams going Over in their previous games and the 1st Cavs-Hornets meeting flying Over its 220.5-point total with a 132-122 overtime win for Cleveland.
Let's fade the recency bias in the betting market and the previous Cavaliers-Hornets result.
NBA Best Bet #1: UNDER 220 in Cavaliers-Hornets (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 219
Odds for the OVER in Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, March 12th.
Portland Trail Blazers (31-36) at New Orleans Pelicans (32-35), 7 p.m. ET
It's fairly obvious that the Pelicans are ejecting out of this NBA season. Similarly to a golfer hitting tee shots into the water and missing 4-foot par-saving putts.
There is no real timetable for Zion Williamson's return. Brandon Ingram and Pelicans PG Jose Alvarado have been ruled out of Sunday's game vs. the Trail Blazers as well.
Alvarado has a +5.7 adjusted on/off net rating, according to CTG, Ingram is New Orleans' second-leading scorer at 22.9 points per game (PPG). Ingram lit up the Trail Blazers for 40 points in a 121-110 Pelicans' road win earlier this month.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum talk following a Trail Blazers-Pelicans game at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Amanda Loman/Getty Images)
Sharps recognize the Pelicans are wounded. Per Pregame.com, more cash is on Portland and more bets have been placed on NOLA. Typically, you want to follow the money when it's opposite of the public.
This is the final of a 6-game road trip for the Blazers and usually you want to fade teams in those spots. But, they are 2-3 overall in the 1st five games so a win here can be a momentum-builder for Portland.
Finally, with no Alvarado in New Orleans' backcourt, Damian Lillard should go off Sunday. Lillard scored 41 points on 54.5% shooting vs. the Pelicans March 1st and has been on a tear lately.
NBA Best Bet #2: Trail Blazers -2.5 (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -3
The Portland Trail Blazers' odds at the New Orleans Pelicans from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, March 12th.
PS Player Prop: New York Knicks SF Josh Hart Over 10.5 points (-120)
The Knicks head to the Crypto.com Arena for a 2nd straight day to play the Lakers with tip-off set for 9 p.m. ET. NYK is on a 3-game losing skid and are without PG Jalen Brunson for a 2nd consecutive game.
New York acquired SF Josh Hart at the trade deadline and he leads the team in adjusted on/off net rating since joining the Knicks, per CTG.
Hart is averaging just 10.9 PPG since going to New York and hasn't gone Over this number in the last six games. But, Hart has a 71.3% effective field goal rate and he should get more run with Brunson out.
Josh Hart celebrates after making a 3-pointer vs. the Pelicans at Madison Square Garden. (Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
In his two games vs. the Lakers this season for both the Trail Blazers and Knicks, Hart is averaging 11.0 PPG on 70.3% true shooting (.538/.500/.833) with 13.0 rebounds and a 131 offensive rating.
The rebounds is significant because Hart hustles and NYK needs that to break out of its slumber. Hart can extend possessions or get easy putbacks by crashing the glass. He's also familiar with this gym and shoots well vs. LAL.