Three NBA Games Worth Betting On Monday, January 30

The NBA's 8-game Monday card is mostly lame with only one game being between teams with a winning record. That said, I've found action in the Pistons-Mavericks, Raptors-Suns, and Hawks-Trail Blazers.

You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my recently launched NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday.

(Word to the wise: It’s the “load management” era in the NBA and random injury news. NBA players are sitting out more games. It would behoove you to wait until the final injury reports before betting.)

Detroit Pistons (13-38) at Dallas Mavericks (26-25), 8:30 p.m. ET

The first Pistons-Mavericks meeting on Dec. 1 soared well Over the 221.5-point total when Dallas won 131-125 in Detroit. The Over has cashed five of the last six Pistons-Mavericks meetings.

Oddsmakers pushed this Pistons-Mavericks meeting's total up eight points to 229.5. This is a big move considering Dallas could be without All-Star Luka Doncic who sprained his ankle Thursday at the Phoenix Suns.

Regardless of Luka's availability, I still like this Pistons-Mavericks OVER up to 230. Dallas's pace picks up when Doncic is off the floor and the Mavs get out in transition more.

Granted, Dallas's offense is much better at getting to the foul line when Luka is on the floor. But, this is a good bounce-back spot for the Mavs' offense.

Pistons combo guard Jaden Ivey drives to the basket during the game vs. the Mavericks at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. (Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images)

Dallas is 1-4 Over/Under (O/U) in the last five games. However, Dallas is 24th in defensive rating and Detroit is 29th. The Mavericks are 16-7 O/U as home favorites this season with a +3.8 O/U margin.

Also, Dallas is 1st in offensive free-throw-attempt rate (FTr) and Detroit is 2nd in offensive FTr. The Mavs are dead-last in defensive FTr and the Pistons are 27th.

Plus the crew chief of the assigned officiating crew (Curtis Blair) for the Pistons-Mavericks has a 21-12 O/U record on the season.

Finally, both offenses rank top-10 in offensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and Dallas has the highest 3PAr in the NBA.

NBA Best Bet #1: OVER 229.5 in Pistons-Mavericks (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to 230

Odds for the OVER in Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Jan. 30th at 11:45 a.m. ET.

Toronto Raptors (23-28) at Phoenix Suns (26-25), 9 p.m. ET

Toronto handled business 113-104 in its home gym, 113-104, against Phoenix back on Dec. 30. The Raptors covered as 2-point home favorites and the game stayed Under the 222-point total.

It's kinda crazy Raptors-Suns part I stayed Under the total considering both teams shot 49.0% from the field. But, this meeting should go Under as well because styles make fights so to speak.

For instance, Phoenix is 22nd in pace and Toronto is 27th. I.e. less possessions usually means fewer points even if both teams are shooting well, which is what happened in the 1st Raptors-Suns meeting.

Both teams don't turn the ball over so each should be able to operate at their usual snail's pace. Both teams had an outlier shooting performance in December. Phoenix is 22nd in true shooting rate. Toronto is 27th.

Suns PG Chris Paul throws a pass around Raptors SG Gary Trent Jr. at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)

Furthermore, two of the three referees assigned to work the Raptors-Suns game have officiated more Unders this season. The Raptors-Suns are 1-3 O/U in their last four meetings with a -11.4 O/U margin.

Phoenix's injury situation makes it difficult for it to exploit Toronto's thin backcourt. The Suns are still without leading scorer Devin Booker and backup guards Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne.

They score 13.3 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Booker is off the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and 3.1 fewer points when Payne isn't in the game.

NBA Best Bet #2: UNDER 221 in Raptors-Suns (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 220

Odds for the UNDER in Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Jan. 30th at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Hawks (25-25) at Portland Trail Blazers (23-26), 10 p.m. ET

This is the 1st Hawks-Trail Blazers meeting of the season. Portland was 1-1 straight up (SU) but 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in those contests albeit Damian Lillard missed both.

My 1st angle in this game is the Trail Blazers bouncing back from an embarrassing loss at home Saturday. Portland was crushed 123-105 by the Raptors and the Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS after their last nine double-digit losses.

Moreover, both teams have injury concerns but Atlanta's are more pressing. Hawks PG Trae Young is "questionable" as is Trail Blazers big Jusuf Nurkic.

However, Atlanta scores 9.7 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Trae is off the floor, per CTG. Portland has a -2.7 adjusted net rating when Nurkic is out of the game.

Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard chucks a 3-pointer vs. Hawks PG Trae Young at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

If anything Nurkic's absence could help the Trail Blazers on offense. Portland's Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons could see increased usage if Nurkic misses as could SF Jerami Grant. All of which are better offensive players.

Also, I could argue the Trail Blazers should be at least -3.5. Portland is +1.8 better than Atlanta in adjusted net rating, per CTG, and home-court advantage is worth +2.1 by TeamRankings.com.

Simple math suggests the Trail Blazers could be -3.9 (obviously that spread can't exist). Home-court means more in this matchup since the Hawks are a notoriously trash road team.

Finally, Portland is better in three of the "four factors" (rebounding, effective field goal shooting, and net FTr). The Blazers also have the best offensive shot quality in the NBA, per CTG, and the Hawks are 29th in that metric.

NBA Best Bet #3: Trail Blazers money line (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -135 before laying up to

The Portland Trail Blazers' odds vs. the Phoenix Suns from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Jan. 30th at 11:45 a.m. ET.