Three John Deere Classic 2023 Head-To-Heads Worth Betting

PublishedJuly 6, 2023 12:35 PM EDT|UpdatedJuly 6, 2023 12:35 PM EDT

The PGA Tour is in the final event of their post-U.S. Open lull before heading to the United Kingdom for back-to-back events at links courses. TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois hosts this week's 2023 John Deere Classic.

My starting 5 for the John Deere is at the bottom of this article. Now I'm circling back on this event to add my tournament matchups. Due to the weak John Deere field, the golfers in the following head-to-heads aren't exactly household names.

John Deere Classic 2023 Tournament Matchups

Taylor Moore (-120) > Keith Mitchell

This is a simple value-play. Moore is 18th in my John Deere power rankings courtesy of the tools provided by FantasyNational.com whereas Mitchell is 49th. Moore plays better at easy courses, putts better, and is in better form.

Over the last 24 rounds, Mitchell 95th in Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) and Moore is 45th. Mitchell is 32nd in total SG at easy courses and 15th at comp courses over the last 36 rounds. Moore is 3rd in total SG at easy courses and 4th at comp courses.

Taylor Moore pulls a club on the 1st hole during the 3rd round of the 2022 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The John Deere is a glorified putting contest. This season on Tour, Moore is 15th in SG: Putting and Mitchell is 57th. Moore is 5th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass over the last 24 rounds, which makes up the greens for TPC Deere Run and Mitchell is 55th.

Finally, Moore is 4th in this John Deere field for Par 4 scoring and 5th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained over the last 36 rounds. While Mitchell is 22nd in SG: Par 4 and 31st in BoB Gained during that stretch.

BET 1.2 units (u) on Taylor Moore (-120) over Keith Mitchell at DraftKings

Taylor Moore's betting odds vs. Keith Mitchell at the 2023 John Deere Classic from DraftKings.

Doug Ghim (+100) > Ludvig Åberg

Am I butt-hurt about Åberg flaming out on the weekend of the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week and costing me a full unit? Yes. Is that why I'm fading him at this week's John Deere? Not entirely.

It's certainly part of the reason but the other part is Ghim has been golfing well lately. In my John Deere power rankings, Ghim is 11th and Åberg is 35th.

Over the last 24 rounds, Ghim is 5th in SG: T2G and Åberg is 27th. Ghim's T33 at the Rocket Mortgage last week was his worst finish over his last five starts and Åberg finished T40.

Doug Ghim hits his tee shot on the 5th hole during the 2021 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. (Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Outside of crushing the ball off-the-tee (OTT), Åberg doesn't have much to his game at the moment. He's going to be a superstar but is still learning the ropes on Tour. Åberg has lost 3.3 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts.

Speaking of which, Ghim finished T18 at the 2019 John Deere and this is Åberg's 1st ever appearance at TPC Deere Run. Supposedly, this course has easy Par 3s. And Ghim is 13th in Par 3 scoring over the last 36 rounds and Åberg is 110th.

BET 1u on Doug Ghim (+100) over Ludvig Åberg at DraftKings

Doug Ghim's betting odds vs. Ludvig Åberg at the 2023 John Deere Classic from DraftKings.

Michael Kim (+100) > Sam Stevens

These golfers are neck-and-neck in my John Deere power rankings: Kim is 24th and Stevens is 25th. But, Kim is in slightly better form coming into this week and his 27-under par score to win the 2018 John Deere is the event record.

There are a ton of approach shots from 75-150 yards at TPC Deere Run. Kim ranks ahead of Stevens in proximity to the hole from 75-100, 100-125, and 125-150 yards over the last 36 rounds. Plus, Stevens is 117th in SG: Par 3 during that stretch and Kim is 6th.

Michael Kim kisses the trophy after winning the 2018 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. (Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Stevens is a PGA Tour rookie with a ton of upside whose long OTT. However, since his T2 at the Valero Texas Open in April, Stevens' best finish is T29 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May.

Furthermore, Kim finished T6 at the Charles Schwab and T7 at the Wells Fargo Championship three weeks prior, which was an "elevated event".