Three Fire NBA Best Bets Tuesday To Snap An Epic Cold Streak
I'm not going to lie, gambling on the NBA has sucked lately. I peaked Christmas 2023 with a 4-1 day, moving my NBA bankroll up to +2.5 units (u). From Jesus's birthday, it's been all downhill and I'm in the hole entering 2024.
Regardless, that's not going to stop me from gambling on the Association. Especially, considering the NFL regular season ends this week and college football bowl season is in the rearview. Instead of focusing on this cold streak, I'm expecting to recoup some lost units with these three ...
NBA Tuesday Best Bets
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5), 8 p.m. ET
The Nets have been horrible over the past two weeks. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Brooklyn is 26th in non-garbage time net rating at -6.0 and dead-last in spread differential at -7.0.
New Orleans has a +7.6 non-garbage time net rating during this stretch (ranked 5th). The Pelicans are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games. But, those three losses were to the Memphis Grizzlies (twice) and Houston Rockets.
The difference between those teams and Brooklyn is defensive efficiency. Memphis is 12th in non-garbage time defensive rating and Houston is 5th while Brooklyn is 23rd, per CTG. NOLA is 10-4 SU vs. teams in the bottom-10 of defensive rating with a +9.7 adjusted net rating and a +5.5 ATS margin.
New Orleans Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram shoots over the Kings in an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Furthermore, New Orleans's personnel matches up well with Brooklyn's. The Pelicans have several long, athletic defenders that can contest all of the Nets' 3-and-D guys. Brooklyn settles for a lot of contested 3-pointers and NOLA is 4th in defensive 3-point shooting.
Lastly, according to DunksAndThrees.com and Basketball Reference, both of whom adjust for strength of schedule in their power ratings, the Pelicans are a top-10 team. The Nets are 1-5 SU and 2-4 against the spread (ATS) as road 'dogs of +5 or more with a -11.2 scoring margin.
My prediction: Pelicans 122, Nets 111
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (-3), 10 p.m. ET
We're buying low on the Warriors who have lost three in a row coming into Tuesday. Golden State's past three losses are at the Denver Nuggets on Christmas and at home vs. the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks.
However, the Nuggets are the reigning NBA champions, the Heat represented the Eastern Conference in the 2023 NBA Finals and Luka Doncic always kills Golden State. Orlando is an up-and-coming team and currently the 4-seed out East.
That said, the Magic are just 4-6 SU over their last 10 games and suck on the road. They score 8.5 fewer points per game (PPG) in away games and allow 5.7 more PPG. Also, Orlando has one of the worst backcourts in the NBA and the opposite is true of the Warriors.
Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry shoots a half-court shot vs. Orlando Magic at the Chase Center in San Francisco. (Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)
Klay Thompson has struggled during Golden State's 3-game losing skid but was averaging 25.7 PPG on 52.9% shooting in the six games prior. Steph Curry is getting his numbers (27.3 PPG on 40.9% 3-point shooting). Plus, Golden State's offense is better with Chris Paul organizing things instead of Draymond Green.
Finally, the Warriors can slow down the Magic's below-average offense. Orlando is 22nd in non-garbage time offensive rating, per CTG, and Golden State's defense leads the NBA in shot quality allowed.
My prediction: Warriors 117, Magic 108
OVER 231 in Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
Neither one of these teams are good at defense and both have recently played more Unders than Overs, which makes this a good zag opportunity. For instance, Charlotte is 29th in non-garbage time defensive rating and Sactown is 21st. The Hornets and Kings are 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) in their last five games.
Charlotte's offense improves on the road while Sacramento's offense improves at home and its defense worsens. The Hornets' effective field goal shooting goes from 51.8% at home to 53.8% in away games. The Kings average 8.8 more PPG at home and allow 6.4 more PPG on the road.
The Kings celebrate after scoring a bucket against the Charlotte Hornets at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
Moreover, Sacramento really pours it on vs. weaker competition at home. Since 2022, the Kings are 12-2-1 O/U as home favorites of -7 or greater. Sactown has a +13.4 O/U margin in those contests. The Hornets are 10-6 O/U this season as road 'dogs with a +5.4 O/U differential.
Charlotte is missing PG LaMelo Ball and wing Gordon Hayward. But, their backups, forwards Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges are better on offense than defense. Hornets big Mark Williams has been hurt since Dec. 11th and he leads their team in defensive on/off rating, per CTG.