Three Bets For UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje II

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet for the 2nd time in UFC 291's main event for the vacated Baddest Motherf— ("BMF") title. Poirier vs. Gaethje II goes down at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah Saturday, July 29th.

The only 5-round fight Saturday is for the BMF title. Poirier is the 2nd-best fighter in the lightweight division and Gaethje is 3rd. The winner of Poirier-Gaethje II could be in line for a shot against UFC Lightweight Champ, Islam Makhachev.

Disclaimer: I’m a “casual UFC fan” at best. Typically, I only bet Jon Jones fights or UFC cards in the summers when there is no NFL and NBA. The latter is the situation Saturday. That said, I grinded to break down this …

UFC 291 Main Fight Card

UFC 'BMF' Title Bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje II

These two have been mainstays in atop the UFC lightweight division since Poirier knocked Gaethje out in their 1st bout in 2018. They've each won the belt and lost to both Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov in title fights.

ESPN lists Poirier's fighting style as "jiu jitsu" and Gaethje as a "striker". However, Poirier has a +1.26 significant strikes per minute differential while Gaethje is -0.26 in that metric, according to UFC.com.

Gaethje is a former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler but Poirier is the better grappler. Poirier has a takedown average of 1.39 per 15 minutes and a 36% takedown accuracy. Gaethje has a 0.13 average with a 25% accuracy.

Poirier has the edge if this fight goes to the mat. He is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt with a 1.24 submission average per 15 minutes. Gaethje only has one win by submission in his UFC career.

Dustin Poirier defeats Justin Gaethje in their lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)

Furthermore, Poirier has a lot more experience in the octagon and 3-0 in rematches. Poirier is 21-6 in the UFC whereas Gaethje is 7-4 in the UFC.

There's been line movement toward Poirier in the betting market since his odds opened at -120. More money is on Poirier at BetOnline.Ag, per Dave Mason, while more bets have been placed on Gaethje.

BET: Dustin Poirier To Win And Over 2.5 (+175)

A parlay for Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 and their bout goes Over 2.5 rounds from DraftKings.

I like Poirier-Gaethje II to go OVER 2.5 rounds, which is juiced up to -135. The Under having a plus-money payout feels like a trap. Both fighters push the pace and are aggressive.

Gaethje has received a fight bonus in all 11 of his bouts in the UFC. Yet two of Gaethje's last three fights have been decided by the judges. And Poirier-Gaethje I was a war and it still went into the 4th round.

Poirier is gearing up for another war with Gaethju at UFC 291. But, this bout will be fought at altitude and it'll take Poirier time to adjust. Both fighters have evolved since their 1st fight and know each other well.

Instead of getting into a slug-fest, which Gaethje wants, Poirier will use his black belt in jiu jitsu early and often. Gaethje's elite wrestling will keep him from being dominated in the clinch or tapping out in the 1st three rounds.

UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Pereira just lost his UFC middleweight belt to Israel Adesanya back in April. Now Pereira is stepping up in weight class to fight Blachowicz in less than four months afterward. This is too big of a jump and too fast for Pereira.

Four of Blachowicz's previous five bouts have been for the light heavyweight belt. Pereira is still new to the MMA world and Blachowicz is more versatile. Pereira is a kickboxing specialist but only has five career fights in the UFC.

Pereira is getting love in the betting market since he beat the ultra-popular Adesanya in a title fight before losing the rematch to him. Adesanya picked Pereira to get a knockout because "he hits harder".

Blachowicz opened up as a -132 favorite over Pereira, according to Odds Shark. But, now that both fighters are down to -110 odds, we are getting Blachowicz at a good number.

BET: Jan Blachowicz (-110) to beat Alex Pereira straight up

Jan Blachowicz's odds vs. Alex Pereira at UFC 291 from DraftKings as of 11 p.m. ET Thursday, July 27th.

UFC Lightweight bout: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

These odds are too big of an overreaction to Ferguson's 5-fight losing skid. Even Green knows that. During UFC 291 media day, Green said: "When you’re fighting those top dogs like that, they’re all killers."

Ferguson's last five opponents were Gaethje, Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Chandler, and Nate Diaz. Oliveira is the No. 1 contender for the lightweight belt, Gaethje is 3rd in the division, Dariush is 4th, Chandler is 5th and Diaz is a UFC legend.

He lost the UFC lightweight belt to Gaethje after two title defenses and Ferguson was 25-3 entering that fight. Green is 0-2-1 in his last three bouts and has gotten smacked around by elite lightweights.

Green was knocked out by Makhachev, and current lightweight champion, in 2022. He lost by unanimous decision to Fiziev three fights prior. And Green was knocked out by Poirier in 2016.

Lastly, Ferguson is the much better striker with longer arm and leg reach. I.e. he has a "puncher's chance" and at 3.1-to-1. I'll sprinkle on Ferguson who has a better resume and needs this win like blood.

BET: Tony Ferguson (+310) to beat Bobby Green straight up

Tony Ferguson's odds vs. Bobby Green at UFC 291 from DraftKings as of 11 p.m. ET Thursday, July 27th.