There Is Value In Betting New England Patriots Are Trash in 2023
Listen. I'll admit there is a high likelihood the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts cash "Fewest Regular Season Wins" bets in the NFL this year. But, the bottom can and will fall out for the New England Patriots in 2023.
Outside of Bill Belichick and a supposed "elite defense," what about the Patriots scares you? It's the NFL in 2023, offense is way more important. Plus, New England's defensive numbers last year are misleading.
Odds for 'Fewest Regular Season Wins" in the NFL (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting odds for teams to have the fewest regular season wins in the NFL this season from DraftKings.
First, let's address the elephant in the room: Patriots QB Mac Jones. In 2022, Jones was 30th in QBR and 28th in expected points added (EPA) per play + completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
He had no game-winning drives or 4th-quarter comebacks last year. I.e. Jones never really won a game for the 2022 Patriots. Jones is entering his third season in the NFL and I'm starting to think he'll never be good.
Also, New England bullied inferior competition in 2022 but got out-classed vs. tough teams. Last year, the Patriots were 7-1 as favorites and 1-8 as underdogs. They allowed 27.0 points per game as 'dogs in 2022.
New England goes from the 19th-toughest schedule in 2022 to the hardest schedule in 2023, according to NFL handicapper Clevta's 2023 preview. In fact, the Patriots are underdogs in 14 games this season.
The Cincinnati Bengals sack New England Patriots QB Mac Jones at Gillette Stadium on Christmas Eve 2022. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Seven of New England's eight wins in 2022 came against backup QBs. The Patriots beat QBs Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, and Skylar Thompson last year.
The easiest QBs New England faces in 2023 are Saints QB Derek Carr, Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Commanders QB Sam Howell, rookie Colts QB Anthony Richardson and Steelers QB Kenny Pickett.
Even though I like Pickett, I'll concede the Pittsburgh, Washington, and Indianapolis games are very winnable for the Patriots next year. However, Carr beat the Patriots last season and Jimmy G has been to a Super Bowl.
TAKE BILL BELICHICK’S RECENT COMMENTS ON OPEN QB BATTLE BETWEEN MAC JONES, BAILEY ZAPPE WITH GRAIN OF SALT
Moreover, I've heard a bunch of NFL handicappers concoct "tanking scenarios" for other teams. But, I haven't heard anyone say this about New England. Belichick is not married to Jones and benched him for backup QB Bailey Zappe last year.
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick and QB Mac Jones converse at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Belichick is not above "tanking" to draft Southern California QB Caleb Williams. San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich tanked for Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs and Patriots haven't been the same since Tim Duncan and Tom Brady left.
That said, the pro-Patriots in ‘23 case is 1st-year offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien helping Jones take a step forward and them having a top-five defense in the NFL. New England is obviously trying to win with defense.
Belichick wants his offense to run the clock without committing turnovers. Think, the Patriots ranking somewhere from 12th to 18th in offensive efficiency this year. The probability of that happening is in between 25-35%.
O’Brien has a bunch of solid vets to work with such as RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson, TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki, and WRs DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
New England Patriots QB Mac Jones and offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien head to practice at Gillette Stadium. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
The problem is none of these players are game-breakers. Both Henry and Gesicki had down years in 2022 but they could be an average NFL TE duo. Elliott is a complimentary and goal-line RB. Stevenson is a legit Pro Bowl-caliber back.
New England’s offensive line was low-key bad last season. The Patriots were last in ESPN’s pass block win rate, 19th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards per snap, and 21st in yards per carry (4.3).
FOLLOWING ELECTRIC PRESEASON DEBUT, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS GIVING MALIK CUNNINGHAM REAL LOOK AT QB
Yet there’s a world where O’Brien gets in the lab and cooks. Jones is back to his NFL-average rookie self. And Stevenson and Elliott form a top-10 backfield in the NFL. In that world plus good injury-luck on defense, the Patriots will be in playoff contention.
Patriots coaches Joe Judge, Belichick and Matt Patricia on the sidelines before an NFL game at Gillette Stadium. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
I’m not seeing that in New England’s future. Instead, I’m projecting that Jones struggles. Two No. 2 WRs (Parker and JuJu) don’t make a No. 1 and two below-average TEs (Henry and Gesicki) don’t add up to a good TE situation.
Furthermore, defense is less predictive than offense. According to RBSDM.com, the Patriots were 3rd in turnover margin last year, which is highly variant. It's unlikely they will get the same turnover-luck.
New England can't afford its defense taking a step back. The Patriots don't have enough bad coaches and QBs on their 2023 schedule. Finally, the other three AFC East teams got better and Belichick can only do so much.
BET: New England Patriots to have the 'Fewest Regular Season Wins" in 2023 (+1500) at DraftKings
Gambling strategy: Remember to always shop around for the best odds. DraftKings Sportsbook offers awesome promotions. But, maybe there are higher odds for the Patriots to finish with the NFL's worst record elsewhere.
Bet slip for the 2023 New England Patriots to have the "Fewest NFL Regular Season Wins" from DraftKings.